Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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There's actually a pretty substantial stripe of ZR on the RGEM from the Triad and points ENE.
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There were some people on the edges of the transition zones in which the NAM seemed to give the most accurate forecast but as a whole it was pretty bad for this event compared to the other guidance.
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Probably location dependent but in general temps are supposed to get better as the night goes on and into the morning hours.
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Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.
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My point and click has me at 9-16 now. I'd take 9 in a heartbeat and be thrilled about it, they sure are optimistic at RAH tonight.
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Our WSW doesn't even start until 1am. Isn't that what's supposed to happen?
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It's fine that's just the column cooling down. Has nothing to do with the warm nose that may/will push in later.
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Thanks, yeah I hope so. Takes a perfect setup for us to stay snow when the QPF approaches an inch or more and this is not that. I'll be happy to take our usual this early in the season.
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Here's the number guesses instead of ranges. I haven't had a foot at my house since I bought it in 2006. Not expecting it this time either but it's nice to see.
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We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.
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I remember a few years ago we had a basically all sleet storm. It was kind of amazing in its own way. We had something absurd like 5" of sleet but the really crazy thing was the foot deep sleet drift on my back deck where it had rolled down the roof and piled up. I don't remember how long exactly but it took forever for it to melt. Feels like it may be time for another one of those. Also instead of snow cream we tried to make snow icees from the sleet. Do not recommend. Maybe get some fruit flavored syrup instead of vanilla/sugar/milk or something.
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Oh we're all going to be in here for this one I think!
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I have a feeling everyone who isn't in the mountains or Virginia is gonna end up here before we're done. As for us in the triad, I really don't like being a few miles from disaster on both the NAM and RGEM.
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Absolutely. As you know I'm sure, it can always sleet here. We've had mostly IP storms when the models never even hinted at mixing until in the short range.
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Looks like the RGEM is what, at least 75 miles north of any other guidance with the heaviest precipitation? Definitely an outlier, however given our history of NW trends as a storm approaches and the RGEM's reputation I certainly wouldn't completely discount it.
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Yeah 1.39 ZR = be prepared to not have power for a week. There's going to be an unlucky ice zone it seems, just hope it isn't that large and doesn't last that long.
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I'm also expecting our usual 6-8 with a little of everything mixed in. This doesn't feel like an all snow setup. Or even mostly snow.
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RAH with 8-12 for GSO and 1-2 for Raleigh...I guess that's about right for the last few years. You may have a much better city but at least we get the snow!
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Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events.
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Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction. I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains.
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We got like a dusting in the triad iirc. I'm pretty sure I went and did a trail run in it and it had all melted by the time I got out of the shower.
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Modeling was consistent for the most part and RAH went from 1-2 in the Triad to 10+ in, what, a day? Less than a day? Yeah that makes sense. Whatever, bring on the storm!
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I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.
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Sounds like a lot of pingers which I am definitely concerned about. Good for sledding I guess.
