Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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Only about 10% of High Point electric customers are still without power now after hitting 50% late this morning. I feel very fortunate to have only lost it for a couple hours.
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Eek, still holding on here near Barrow road. Looks like about half of the 40k High Point energy customers are out as of now.
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That’s definitely just raw model output.
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I don’t know what to think about that. The NAM has been far too dry at times with multiple systems in the last month.
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If I didn’t have falling trees to worry about them probably. I rooted for hurricanes growing up on the coast as well. That would be one heck of a sleet storm if the soundings are right. I remember getting about 1.5” of qpf as sleet a few years ago and it was wild. We ended up with like a 20” iceberg on the back deck from where the sleet would funnel down the roof.
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I would hope a lot of us could sleet in northern NC if there’s ZR in Macon Georgia but who knows.
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Yeah no way that happens with that look. I can’t speak for anyone else but I’m gonna fire up the generator this week and make sure it’s working.
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That big bright band over Guilford is like 90% sleet. On the plus side it’s put a nice icy coating on things if we can get some snow.
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Plz to not be jinxing the event before I change over. Thanks.
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Based on what I’ve seen from observations roughly anywhere inside the 1 degree 925mb line seems to be mostly snow or at least frozen.
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I feel really bad for the people in the upstate who have to watch the HRRR slowly take their nice band of snow away run by run today.
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The NAM is really good at showing every possible solution over the course of a couple days regardless of how based in reality they may or may not be.
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It’ll get here at the end of March like it always does. Seriously though as has been said the cold holding back like this is not at all unusual. And it does usually get here eventually. It’s just torture after some of the runs this week.
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This is another miss in the Triad. Such a rough winter. I’ve seen snow half a dozen times and it hasn’t totaled a half inch.
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The HRRR could be right of course. That said it’s shown very little skill outside of 6-8 hours this winter from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t worry too much.
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Why do you say that? At least in central NC it’s pretty typical.
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Yeah the 3k NAM cut back on what it was showing in central NC for tomorrow as well. I think there will be flurries flying around but that may be about it.
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That band in the mountains looks really stout if you user a higher tilt from GSP. (You can see all the snow that’s falling but not making it to the ground.)
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I found some slides on FRAM which were mostly what I was looking for. One interesting thing is there wasn't much evidence of temps below -2C helping with ice accrual. At that point it seemed like rates and even wind were bigger factors. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9
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I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.
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Looking through the UK temp panels I don't think any of that in NC in the Triad or points south and east is snow. Maybe a few flakes before going to a little sleet, some marginal ZR and then rain. Even farther N and W most of it is mixed. As you get into Virginia it looks more likely to stay snow.
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I’m honestly surprised the Euro totals aren’t higher up north. The coastal just sits there for 2 days.
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Pretty excited for everyone to my east to get snow tonight and everyone to my west to get it this weekend. Why haven't I moved to Colorado yet?
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He’s been pretty anti-weenie for awhile now. I think the terrible winters have broken him.
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Pretty sure this storm is gonna be in Boston by Monday.
