Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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Point stands though it's still a large spread at 84 hours.
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Ragged? And no eyewall replacement cycle. It just developed a proper eyewall recently.
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Exactly this. Actually the TVCN consensus model has been beating even the official NHC forecast tracks recently. Similarly, the IVCN consensus is the best bet for intensity. As for the GFS, I really think it's just missing on the strength of that ridge. Be nice if the GFS got one right for a change though.
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So those WPC forecasts aren't entirely automated but they do lean heavily on the GEFS and NCEP numerical models.
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NOAA "Kermit" was supposed to take off at 12z from Bermuda for a mission. Awfully hard to get recon into this storm (although that should change today).
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Landfall at like MHC and a slow drift and stall up to the NC/VA line is going to inundate the DC area with much of the rain that the Euro has going into central and western NC. And the DC area, as you know I'm sure, has had a ton of rain already in the last couple months. It's on the northern edge of the danger area for sure but definitely still in it.
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The NC coast can take a hurricane. This isn't the northeast. People know what to do. There will probably be a lot of damage but they'll be ok. I'm expecting the rain to end up being much more dangerous than surge or wind.
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With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature.
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I think there's a good chance that the weather will be ok at 5pm Thursday in Raleigh. The problem is that there are a lot of other factors in play. You don't want to get a flight crew stuck there, or a plane. And cancelled flights in other locations may also have an impact. I'd definitely take the earlier flight if you can.
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Yeah the SSTs support at least a category higher than normal, probably more than that in spots. Strong category 3 is usually the worst case scenario for NC but I'm not sure that's the case this time.
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Starting to look like it's just not our year triad north and west. Maybe I'll squeeze out 1" to add to my 1.5" season total.
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Hard to get excited about the incoming flizzard when sitting at 1.5" for the winter so far. Need more than that here!
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Who could have guessed that a SW wind would be bad for cad?
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So I shouldn't say this but as soon as I saw reports of 6" from CHS the first thing I thought was how long has it been since Raleigh had 6" of snow? Was it this decade?
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Beam height. It's not snowing anywhere near the surface to your west. The 0.5° scan is 3000 feet above the surface in Sanford, which is the closest location to the radar site that's actually showing a return.
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So how about all those storms over the years that were supposed to jackpot the Triad and Triangle and miss SW VA only to have Roanoke jackpot every single time? Why can't that happen when I'm supposed to be too far NW? Just once? Jokes aside I'm pretty glad that I don't have to sweat this one out. Looks extra stressful even by NC winter storm standards.
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There are a couple partly cloudy days in my 7 day forecast. I'm sure we can squeeze a few inches out of one of those...
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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
Dunkman replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah it's killing me too. It isn't the warm ground though, it's not sticking to elevated surfaces either. The air is just too warm. -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
Dunkman replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
I haven't had a chance to look at the HRRR in depth but one thing I noticed briefly flipping through the mesoscale models is that through 21z Friday it's fairly substantially drier than all of the other models. This is true pretty much everywhere but especially as you go N and W from the heaviest totals. -
Mine is already on upstairs. Trying to hold off downstairs but it's going to be close. Fab February?
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You should always worry about sleet. I've had more sleet than snow the last 5 years. And I'm not talking liquid equivalent either. Actual ground measurements. 2 days ago I saw a model with snow at Disney World and now the NW Piedmont of NC is close enough to smell the sleet on the NAM. You're never safe!
