WeatherNC
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CR's dangling that NAM carrot.
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About to be sails up to Roanoke Rapids, just north of the city. It was between there, Warrenton and even kicked around the 85 corridor but coming back tomorrow afternoon should be easier. Banking on the GFS and Euro with the RGEM's IP fringe job being fatties.
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Thinking maybe Henderson now, don't have a warm and fuzzy about Roanoke Rapids
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Just hit our forecasted high of 45
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Louisburg of Roanoke Rapids? Going to leave tonight as is will be ripping in the early AM. Going to attempt to get to Medoc Mountian tomorrow for some outdoor activities.
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PGV's tapped out, expecting no less than 9hrs of pingers.
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RGEM now showing ZR here tomorrow night, that's a nice change. Could be around lunchtime on Saturday before we have a sub zero column.
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ORF to GSP, great run if you are west of that line, Richmond gets smoked.
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Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA?
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Yeah, I would pick the NAM too.
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Soundings look like solid IP, several inches worth.
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It's sleeting out currently, sign of things to come?
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I am split between Roxboro and Ahoskie - Gatesville, still some time but the logistics are different. Roxboro I would leave tomorrow night and stay overnight, come back Saturday evening. NE NC I will leave Saturday before sun up and just come back in the evening. Merchants Millpond is always open so that has me interested plus a nice blend of outdoor activities, good Jeb walk material. I think the chance of seeing a foot is moderate which is enough for sails up.
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I find that the UK and Ecmwf can over amplify things inside a day or two, NAM too, atleast that is what I am telling myself right now.
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Only thing going for me is a 4x4 and a full tank of gas.
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GFS soundings are all snow at PGV, don't have the off hours but atleast from 42-54hrs. NAM is shorts weather, I will ride the GFS until the Euro tells me to break out the sun screen here in a few.
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Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing. This fits climo of a Miller A.
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I think PGV is screwed, advisory type deal.
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Greenville gets blanked on the 12z RGEM too, nice
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NAM has basically no snow here, I think it's time to start panicking
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Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare. The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check. I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.
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Wrong Forum? Maybe twitter?
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NAM must have got wind of that Winter Storm Watch WFO Birmingham issued.
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I do think wide spread single digits are likely Sunday night, I can count on one hand that occurrence here over the past 12 years.
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Kind of concerned that the 15z SREF mean for RWI is 1" with only a couple NMBs biting.