WeatherNC

National Weather Service Office in Raleigh and Morehead City.

Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

Upwelling, dry air entrainment from nearby land, increased sheer, there’s several mechanisms at play.

GEFS would indicate a stall. I agree, it should not happen, same as us not feeling direct impacts from a storm given the current position. We are just clearing Bermuda to the south, still need to be real at this early stage.

The odds of steering currents breaking down is real, it’s just a matter of where at this point, it could be western NC, central VA or offshore (still very much on the table, climo supports). The Euro gives pause but the trend over the past 24 hours is east, no doubt.

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too. Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM. Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior. Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

Position error at this range is still 100-150 miles, that’s absolute position as opposed to east - west, everywhere from MYR to HAT and even offshore is still within the track error. Still a ways to go and ala Irma, Florence has by no means drawn her final card.

Op Euro and GFS blend would be pretty close to a worst case scenario, I do like the FV3, which is pretty lock step with the Euro. At this stage I would toss the ensembles within reason, still a tool but not something I would weight a landfall forecast on. The TAB is a great tool and as long as it shows those steering currents break down ivo landfall, the comfidence it will slow down greatly is high, along with any late stage change in course.

I’ll be honest, at this point I am more stressed and concerned than excited. Don’t get me wrong, I like a good sustained wind about as much as anyone, just as long as it’s not on my house. The real worry and I think at this point my house is ok, is the potential stall and biblical amounts of rain. That’s a worst case scenario for emergency management, two disasters to deal with as opposed to one. It would take 3-7 days for rain to empty into the sound, its not a fast process by any stretch and will greatly hamper reocervey efforts from the immediate storm.

12z UK came north, landfall around the NC/SC border. Two camps at this point, foreign vs domestic.

Neither do I

@WRISKCOM ?

Anything to get the stench out of the local Wilkesboro Utilities supply man.

He's around, I haven't lost the scent.

If the Euro follows suit then yes, still a little too early to tell but navigating this tight rope is similar to the 1st week of March.

About to take off the mower deck and rebuild it, leave it to Honda to over-engineer the darn thing. Bearings have to pressed on to the shafts, if it weren't for the rebuild of the troybilt horse back end a few years ago I would feel out of my league. A couple of the sycamores a died back last year and are not looking so hot, wondering if I need to take them out while young and replant with chestnut oak or white oak. Anthranocosos is a big killer here of sycamores, I have 5 in a row and wondering if 2 got hit.

They're out there they just don't show snow

I am taking up wood working this year, seemed like a good fit since I have a lot of screws on hand.

It's been over 14 years since Raleigh had an official 8" plus storm, 2002 I think.

Like a kid on Christmas morning, being in a good snowstorm is my comfort zone.

Now that it is snowing outside I feel better.

I drove to Roanoke Rapids for a couple inches of crust, words cannot describe the level of disappointment.

Whatever happened to Jim? One would think a weather conglomerate like TWC would do a better job putting these guys in the thick of it.

OK, I am panicking, flipped to sleet and that line is booking north. Should have listed to Fraz and hit up the 85 corridor. Sleet is nothing more than a winter weather sideshow.

I found WRALs Drive 5 zipping through the dusted streets of Durham much more entertaining.