icebreaker5221

Probably better for the CA drought thread, since this isn't about the medium-range forecast. In any event, a small percentage of the state being ~1" above average for the latest 30-day period is just a drop in the bucket compared to the 5-10"+ deficits accumulated this winter. Also, being slightly below last year when last year was one of the worst drought years ever actually is still pretty bad. But I will concede that a slightly wetter pattern recently is certainly better than the alternative, with some more threats this week.

Ok cool, thanks! I'd also say that the 11-15day GEFS mean has some potential - I can picture a few embedded shortwaves digging nicely out of that trough in the TX/NM/OK region with decent return flow out of the Gulf.

I haven't seen them; why are they "wow"?

Hopefully the active jet sets up just a little bit further south than that this winter so central CA can get into the action. Of course it's still too early for that right now, climatologically speaking.

Looks like a decent setup for severe weather for October. We'd probably want to see greater height falls (as a rough proxy for surface pressure falls) to really back surface winds enough for widespread tornadoes, but that LLJ is nonetheless impressive. Bares watching.

Can we just lock this in now please? kthx

Well, if summer is short, it might as well be hot, right? (sort of the opposite philosophy I apply to FL winters) Flirting with +4 sigma at 500 mb:

Starting to look quite wintry up there, with -24 F at Fairbanks and some snow moving in tonight for Anchorage. Cold arctic high pressure should slide in from the Chukchi by Fri. Any local obs to report Baro?

Next 10 days are looking pretty chilly up there in AK. The pattern since basically last year of AK being the only persistently cold spot continues. Hopefully we don't see a semi-permanent AK vortex this winter.

Cool! Have fun up there! Hey, it's prbably not as bad as getting used to moving to the southern hemisphere On another note, we need more obs from MTBLANC.

Nice pics! Are you just visiting or did you move there?

Really nice gallery! Valdez reporting a snow depth of 81".

While the rest of the US yearns for snow, it's been an epic year so far in Valdez. SNOWFALL (DEPARTURE) YESTERDAY 3.7" (+1.3) SINCE DEC 1 141.7" (+77.2) SINCE JUL 1 213.1" (+94.8) SNOW DEPTH 54"

I could understand if it never freezes solid, but does it at least develop a layer of ice on top in the winter? Mixing would certainly delay the freezing process, but I couldn't imagine not getting some surface ice at those temperatures!

Looking super cold if the long range forecasts pan out! Post some more pics when you get the chance!