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southmdwatcher

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  1. southmdwatcher
    We shall see what SPC and Sterling have to say over the next few hours. The lapse rates over us now are quite strong. That will move out as we head towards morning. The sun will definitely be out for some period of time tomorrow, just a matter of how long and whether a new batch of prefrontal storms breaks out and squashes any substantial buildup of instability. The timing of the event across AL/MS is slightly quicker than was expected. That throws wrinkles into our forecast tomorrow.
  2. southmdwatcher
    That was from 15Z run of SREF, this is 21Z
  3. southmdwatcher
    Day 3 Slight with Enhanced off to the south.
  4. southmdwatcher
    The Euro had the secondary low pressure yesterday. This is at 84 hours, so take it for what that is worth. The 12km NAM just ran and has the main low heading into the Great Lakes, as a secondary forms in MS/AL late Thursday and rides northeastward to around Knoxville TN as a 991mb low at 8pm Friday night. Could be quite stormy with the pressure falls, backed winds and night time low level jet increase as we go through Friday evening through Saturday morning.
  5. southmdwatcher
    TDS for the last 3 scans started near Bethel heading for Georgetown.
  6. southmdwatcher
    Saluda and Urbanna could have been hit really hard just now.
  7. southmdwatcher
    Wow, the storms off to the southeast are really significant. One crossing the Bay as Andy pointed out and the one that just passed over Saluda VA
  8. southmdwatcher
    Loud wind gusts continue and heavy rain. Close but not severe here, but it certainly had the feel.
  9. southmdwatcher
    I can hear it coming, booming thunder lights flickering already.
  10. southmdwatcher
    small inflow notch just crossed the river south of Nanjemoy
  11. southmdwatcher
    Not good, and it gets to cross the River and get the added kick for rotation. Lovely next 45 minutes coming up.
  12. southmdwatcher
    I agree, but that is the nighttime Dixie Alley taste I was speaking of. Hopefully, uneventful.
  13. southmdwatcher
    Temps have gone up...
  14. southmdwatcher
    Ugh, the bands coming out of NC are looking to set up a train. Along with the significant parameters for severe. We get a taste of Dixie Alley tonight, hopefully without any pain.
  15. southmdwatcher
    Not at all, that is certainly underway across central and western VA and NC.
  16. southmdwatcher
    New tornado watch incoming for central and eastern VA downstream from the eastern side of our area. Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150407Z - 150600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected. A tornado watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Numerous showers have developed in central North Carolina within the last hour on the western edge of a higher theta-e airmass in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. These 70+ degree dewpoints are expected to continue to advect northwestward which will aid in destabilization across the area as temperatures cool aloft. The updrafts currently lack deep growth amid strong shear, but are expected to slowly deepen and eventually reach severe strength in the next 1 to 2 hours as the instability increases and the low-level jet strengthens (~70 knots per RAX VWP). Effective shear in excess of 60 knots will support supercell storm mode with a risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Directional shear is not all that strong, but 0 to 1 km speed shear in excess of 50 knots may support some low-level mesocyclone organization. ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019
  17. southmdwatcher
    Well, it is certainly a good thing that we did not have any further elevated levels of instability earlier to aid these storms. The line across the Appalachians is breaking up somewhat into segments and discrete storms and segments are dominant east of the Blue Ridge from here south to the Carolina's.
  18. southmdwatcher
    The SPC mesoscale page has a relatively new Beta parameter, the Violent Tornado parameter. It has been fairly accurate with the significant tornadoes so far this season. The large bullseye in central NC that ramped up over the past few hours to a level of 15, needs to pass south and east of us or diminish just as quickly as it ramped up. I believe it may pass through the eastern side of our forecast area in a few hours.
  19. southmdwatcher
    Don't know if they make it north of I64, but there are more than a few bands and discrete cells developing across SW VA in the new tornado watch area, heading NE.
  20. southmdwatcher
    Sorry for the delete, new tornado watch for western VA(south of CHO) and western half of NC down to the upstate of SC until 5am. Delayed timing for the southern half of our area??
  21. southmdwatcher
    The Chesterfield storm is heading for the southern Maryland magnet. And it certainly has parameter space all to it's self for a while.
  22. southmdwatcher
    Later tonight might look linear, but the low level jet will really ramp up, and there could be embedded tornadoes in lines. We are not accustomed to dealing with that scenario in this region.
  23. southmdwatcher
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0349.html Mesoscale Discussion 0349 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Virginia...Eastern West Virginia...Southwestern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 142149Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of central and northern Virginia over the next hour. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed soon across the region. DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Virginia. This cluster will continue to move northeastward into central Virginia where strong deep-layer shear and instability will be sufficient for a severe threat. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will exist with this activity. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019
  24. southmdwatcher
    Watch coming soon for NVA and DC area, SPC meso issued just now, probability is 95%
  25. southmdwatcher
    It would be a rough takeoff, but Ive been on worse takeoffs and landings with surface winds.
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