wncsnow

I don't like seeing the UK go to an almost whiff. It did well last system and from my experience, does well with phasing. I definitely do not trust the GFS. Its almost always playing from behind but this is a very tricky situation that all depends on small changes. With the last storm I think both GFS and Euro struggled in different aspects. The Euro caught on to the more amped idea earlier but was terrible with CAD. The GFS took way too long to figure out the storm track but modeled the CAD better. As @BooneWX said, we may have to wait until CAMs range for this one. The upper low will have some smiling and some swearing to never trust a model again.

Should be higher ratios if we can get the moisture.

Trends seem clear that its all or nothing on the ULL enhancement. Coastal is too far offshore.

Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here.

6 here

AI Euro is slightly weaker and less precipitation. Not really east just not as negative tilt. Meh

Also that's 10-1 it would be higher ratios especially in western NC/SC

Looks like the weather next eh?

UK coming in hot

Let's hope the Canadian is as accurate as it was for last storm.

Things to look for are more west trends with that polar energy, less of a kicker wave behind it to prevent it from digging/going negative tilt, and a stronger southern stream wave (or piece of another Baja low). The Baja taketh and maybe giveth this time?

We just had one of the biggest sleet storms ever here, avoided a power nightmare, and looking at a low in the single digits. What happened ain't so bad. It was a winter storm for most of NC and SC just not snow.

Its hard to bet against it right now after the last few storms, but the NBM is also promising and having the Canadian on board helps. I have learned that the GFS is often better at getting fine details closer to events but struggles with large scale at longer leads where previously the Euro and now AIFS and weather next seem to shine.

Weathernext seems to be locked in. Just small deviations the past few days.

Weathernext or bust for me. It was showing this threat before the Euro had a clue. New run coming in 30 minutes

8

Just need a few ticks west/more digging and its a big from Murphy to Manteo.

Wind chill even here is touching single digits.

Good old NavGem still being used

Can a met chime in on which models are used for the NBM? Are AI models in it? Weathernext?

AI GFS is still trending west. Leeside enhancement showing up too

I agree but the weather next trended that way. It has a strong feature that tracks right. We need both of those things.

I see some leeside enhancement showing up which makes me hopeful. It all depends on how far south the ULL digs.

Here are the CIPS analogs (March 1980 is number 1)

Very well it was north of every model and closest to verification