wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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The northern stream is the main culprit for the lower totals. But then again, if it isn't squashed, it's probably a mixed mess even for the foothills and mountains. No true CAD high in place. -
Euro is pretty steady but slightly less than 12z
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Canadian is finally coming in and it also has less precipitation across nc.
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We need more of a NNE movement of the precipitation not ENE. That's one reason it's so dry over NC. Plus the trough is too progressive and trending more positive last few runs
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Storms drying up faster than a Nature Valley granola bar
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My confidence is dwindling fast. I assume the Euro will be very dry as well. Must have been some new data sampled..
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UK is a disaster for snow lovers east of the Apps.
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We need a strong subtropical jet. Lacking a bit during a Nina.
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Another step down compared to previous run
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Don't like the trends tonight... may turn into an inch or less for leeside screw zone.
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Mixing
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This looks more like the Euro with the heavy precip in the OH valley
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I don't like all the northern stream interaction pressing down on the system.
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NAM looks warmer
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I dont like it from the phase happy NAM. Might be lower precip this run
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NAM looks disjointed so far.
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Dallas was getting 8"+ now models have them under 4 and they are less than 2 days out. Shows how quickly it can change...
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I agree. The Euro and UK both showing it is concerning me. If 00Z euro and UK come in dryer again I'm going to lower expectations
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From what I can still the SREF looks ok. I don't have the plumes but QPF looks ok. Nothing huge but solid
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Never ignore the Euro
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I just have that nagging feeling that something is going to screw us still. Don't like the 18Z euro going dry again. It looked like the UK with a dry area around the escarpment too. Hopefully the trends will be good at 00Z.
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Less precip.. don't like that. First Euro run in a while that brought precip totals down instead of up..
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Here are my reasons for optimism- 1. Snow pack to the north and cold in place 2. Cold (frozen) ground and sun angle are ideal for quick accumulation 3. Majority of the precipitation falls at night. Easier to stick. 4. Confluence should prevent it cutting too far north/west 5. The air is dry out ahead and will allow for evaporative cooling.
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The 00Z run will be interesting.
