wncsnow

NAM is colder this run but its razor edge

I broke it down a bit further and researched winter storms since 2000 in December and this is what I could find for WNC- In December 2000 there was a 1-3 inch snow for most of the foothills west of 77 and mountains In December 2002 there was a nice CAD storm with 2-6 inches for most of the foothills and mountains In December 2003 there were multiple small events/icing events In December 2005 there were 2 icing events In December 2009 there was the big snowstorm on December 19 In December 2010 there were a couple small events and the big Christmas snow In December 2017 there was a big overrunning snow In December 2018 there was a big snow In December 2019 there was a light icing event So thats 9 out of 25 winters with at least small events. There were 4 big snowstorms in that time frame. December has definitely been feast or famine but over the past 25 years it has produced 3 of the 5 biggest snowstorms for WNC.

Round 2 on the Euro for Sat night but its mostly rain outside the mountains

Even though the amounts could be light, this is our best chance since last January.

Meh.

Euro looks similar, a little light on the precip though

Yup. Where's @BIG FROSTY

Another thing to note is this is less than 70 hours from start time.

I expect the Euro to show another nice scenario for NW NC and SW VA. That looks like the best spot to be for now

UK is close for a nice hit for a lot of 40 north folks

It was 90% cold rain

Yep this could be another cold rain for us and is trending that way for now..

Yeah we are in the least snowy 6 year period in recorded history. Only 1 winter storm warning criteria storm in that time frame. Only other time frame thats close is 97-02.

Yep, area wide 6-8 inch storm would have been amazing. Maybe Friday can still work but it's super marginal.

Yep about the same here. We need the rain though

Thought this was interesting. Some mets think that Arctic air masses will modify even more this winter due to the Hudson Bay being almost ice free and having less ice than almost any other year ever

Stronger southern stream but weaker CAD high and our pesky SE Ridge is still fighting back enough to mess up the cold air transport

Euro is more amped as well but too warm for most of NC but some ice in CAD regions. Some snow in VA.

UK is quite amped with the Friday system and has ice for WNC and some snow in VA.

Yep NW flow. Mountains could get some clipper snow but cold and windy for most

Need the first wave to take over and come in quicker for more frozen precip like the Euro shows.

Usually in these setups its above 2.5k or 3k ft. Sometimes it will be nothing until your close to the top of Old Fort Mountain.

My perspective on the next few weeks- Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays.