wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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This winter is bringing back memories of some real stinkers that were also La Ninas like 2012/13.
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We also used to get big synoptic snows in those months and we don't anymore. We have gotten more snow than TN border areas many times out of Gulf lows. We did in January 2022 and in December 2018.
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1. I never said it would verify cold, I said it was a time period to watch (which it still could be). I was never sold on the first 10 days of January thats going to be a torch 2. You generally bet on cold and snowy regardless of what the models say and thats ok.
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Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago?
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It looks rough right now. The odds of another snowless winter are going up.
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The next big snow within driving distance will be my next chase. I NEED SNOW lol
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We'll take 40s and rain instead..we need the rain though
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GEFS looks ugly through mid month, EPS is a bit better but doesn't bring much cold down until the very end of the run about 15 days from now. What a difference a couple of days make. Like I said previously, I would be happy with a 2 week at or below average period with an active storm track.
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It's concerning too because it is rare to have a cold, wintry February or March during La Nina's as olaf's post shows. Even with a -NAO. If we keep delaying the cold coming to the SE it may never come at all. All I would like to see is a week or 2 period of a decent pattern with cold and an active STJ.
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I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals
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Thats pretty typical for modeling sites like pivotal weather.
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I'm always ready
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Euro looks terrible through January 10. Widespread 60s every day next week and some 70s. GFS also shows the warm temps
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Yeah it keeps a SE Ridge the entire run basically yikes
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Lol
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Yep the drought is becoming a big issue with wildfires in WNC.
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12Z is not off to a good start
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It can be an infuriating hobby, especially if you love snow. 1 winter storm in the past 6 winters is tough to endure. At least the ski resorts are going to make up for a lot of lost revenue
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GFS continues to rain on the sustained cold parade. It is finding new and creative ways to destroy the block And now the Euro looks more like the bad GFS runs.
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Thats a top 10 snowy month of the past 50 years here.
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Finally feels like winter again. Grass was getting green and some flowers were trying to come up
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Yep we only got 2 inches of snow out of a great pattern here so they dont always produce but just stating that we have seen better looks before and we shouldn't act like this is the best look ever. One thing that could make this year better with less cold is the possibility of an active STJ. It was quite weak all of last winter.
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Hopefully the GFS is starting to get a clue now. The EPS looks pretty good especially towards the middle of the month.
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Yep it's a decent look but honestly last year looked better at this stage.
