wncsnow

Everything is fine

Yeah it's 75-80 east of the Blue Ridge today even. SER is strong the next few weeks. Hopefully it decides to go on vacation until March

At least snowpack should build in the Midwest the next few weeks..

Yes Eastern sections had a nice winter

I have seen this song and dance many times the past 10 years. 1. Models/weeklies show great pattern weeks away 2. Models/weeklies start delaying or backing off of great pattern 3. Weeks go by and its still at or above average 4. Now its January and the change hasn't really happened. Fab Feb will save us

Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO.

EPS agrees.

Quite a few but the last couple el ninos sucked even worse TBH

What about the past 20

The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end.

With the SE ridge looking stout, I have to be skeptical about any long lasting cold/winter weather threats. Maybe as we get deeper in December.

It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December.

It will come east but modified. Can we get the storm track to our SE instead of a parade of cutters? If I was in the upper TN valley/Ohio valley I would be really excited.

29.8

Got down to 30 last night

Imagine how bad it would be without the big snow in 2022?

That's sobering

I agree that a perfect pattern now would likely mean no snow outside the mountains but patterns repeat themselves and the one the next few weeks looks very Nina ish

Long range continues to look generally warm on ops and ensembles. When does it flip?

Exactly. That's my main concern and it's incredibly hard to get rid of

Despite the cold snap, November is almost guaranteed to finish above average

Looks like the cold is going to center in the rockies/northwest first and we have a big ridge until the end of the month

The 1968-69 winter has been brought up a lot recently. We got this beast that winter.

How's tonight looking?

30 here already. Dont see any aurora yet