wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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Euro AI THROWS a curveball with a flatter look.
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A lot of that is sleet and ZR south of 40
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Its trending north though
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I would rather it stay a bit south and not get the Baja low as involved. The SE Ridge can be a real beyatch... I still think most of NC mixes at some point, even N of 85. Va mostly snow.
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I don't like the trends with capturing the Baja low. It could amp too far west and even north of I 85 suffer from ice.
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It's more in line with other guidance now. Let's hope they don't shift North too. Gotta keep that high strong
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It pulled the Baja low so it went north and now looks more like the Euro and AI models
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It wasn't that bad of a run honestly. Well within the possible range of outcomes.
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ICON might be bringing wave 2 right behind
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ICON is more amped for sure. More like Euro AI. Miller A/B hybrid
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Long range has other threats too. Hard to think about with this one 4-5 days out but the next month looks fascinating
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I would say so. Probably somewhat dependent on how far up the coast it goes.
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We just need consistency without major changes and we are in a really good spot. Arguably the best spot right now. We are far northeast enough to take full advantage of CAD and can do well in miller A/B hybrid, and far south enough to avoid missing out completely on some slightly suppressed looks
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18Z euro only goes to 144. There was more coming.
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These could be my famous last words but I just don't see how we miss this one. Its either a huge snow, snow then sleet and ice, or sleet and ice of epic proportions. Its still 5 days out but the windows are narrowing
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O/U on sleep hours per night this week set at 6
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Great trends on the Euro. Baja low trended west. Cold HP trended stronger.
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I think we will get more sleet than ZR in this type of setup. Asheville could turn to ZR quicker than east of the escarpment, but this is a strong high. Places west of Asheville have the trickiest forecast if it turns into a Miller A/B hybrid of Miller B.
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The UK makes sense climatologically
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Canadian is gonna be more amped
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GFS is a big hit
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The start is less than 5 days away which is kind of crazy
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IF the high is anywhere close as strong as being modeled, it should continue to shift south slightly.
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It does look like a Miller A/B hybrid, which we have done well with recently in western NC. Jan 2022, Jan 30, 2010, and December 2002 were somewhat similar setups. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/
