wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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Finally came in
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Guilty
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Its been freezing up a lot lately.
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The UK is trying
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That and the PV lobe was better oriented and not so far south.
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ICON is improved
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The Euro is still the king and leads verification scores. It was the driest model and was correct the last storm. It has a little cold bias lately that I have noticed but overall I still weigh it about 80% and the other models about 20.
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The cold air looks to be for about 3 or 4 days then it hightails it out of here.
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How shitty will it be to get down to single digits then rain later in the week. That's what the Euro and GFS show now.
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Better start trending the other way soon. We all know what's after this cold snap.
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We don't get air from Siberia every winter. Suppression is definitely on the table and a NW trend isn't inevitable this time.
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And 12Z was less than 00z last night
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It's less amped than 12Z.
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Wave 2 is gonna be super amped. Probably rain for most. This would be the worst case scenario
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Wave 2 is coming again
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The ensemble mean has mostly increased because the huge members are skewing it upward. There are still more whiffs than hits.
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It's shredded
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Yeah it focuses on wave 2
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Icon is still suppressed
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ICON
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Post
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Nam and now the Hi Res Nam are close for Saturday morning for the mountains and adjacent foothills.
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We are at a crossroads right now. A lot of members still show no storm or very suppressed. Others have a bomb. It's nearing the time it will trend one way or another. We are about 7 days out now depending on the model. By 5 days we should have a better idea.
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18Z Euro AI is a miss for here
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