wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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GFS is colder at surface showing nicer CAD
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Thats what I figured. Thanks though, I may have to pony up and get a subscription.
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Where do you get ensemble numbers?
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Still impressive for western sections. Keep in mind much of this would be sleet/slop
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Indeed. Sure seems like our area has been ground zero for events the past 3 months though including Michael remnants and flooding to ice and record breaking rain.
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I think SW VA is starting to look like the best area for heavy accumulations but its still 5+ days out,
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Doubt it, my wife graduates Saturday from her Masters program so I will be here in SoVa.
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I think one thing to keep in mind is the timing of this. It needs to speed up a little to better coincide with the cold air/HP. If it keeps trending slower it could be just rain for about everyone.
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The mountains would get raked with heavy wet snow if Euro is right. Nice orographic uplift from SE flow too
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Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA.
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God lol
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lol the GFS strikes again.. The sooner this version of the model is replaced the better. It doesn't even get moisture to Northern NC, Southern VA
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Those strong modeled highs do favor a more southerly track if correct.
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It's gusting over 60 mph in a lot of places around Morehead City, Beaufort, Atlantoc Beach. I expect some hurricane force gusts soon.
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GFS continues to track the system further north inland in SC
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Center tracks from Darlington to just N of Columbia to Spartanburg to Hendersonville.
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Much higher rainfall totals for the triangle and triad this run. Over a foot in places
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It seems to be turning more west than south with each run and is now moving north of Florence, SC instead of southern SC
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Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift.
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Well I was wrong it went even further SW into Georgia..Has to be an all time anomalous track if it happens.
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Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78.
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This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..
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Yes it would be horrible BUT not as horrible as other model solutions..
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It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions. 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.
