Like you said, its bias for overamping storms is obvious with this one. Pretty much every other model is progressive with the storm and only gets lighter precip into WNC either way,
Yes I believe so. Originally it had my 30 year average at 3.3 which was not even close. I called them out on it and they admitted they were missing snowfall data for a couple years and remade it.
I remember when they made this graphic they took a lot of flack. This is an edited version of the original. The original omitted a couple seasons of data including big winters of 1988 and another so the totals are lower than expected for some still. My 30 year average in Marion is around 10 inches not 6.6.
The odds continue to increase for a snowless winter for most of the southeast. I would put the odds of a trace or less of snow for Charlotte, GSP, Raleigh and GSO at 70%.
Looks like the Wednesday "threat" is going sour too. Even the Nam has the northern stream energy way too far north and into west Virginia and Virginia now. Odds of accumulating snow in WNC valleys is low
There have been a few occasions where I could drive to the Marion rest area which is about three or four hundred feet higher than where I live and see a white ground and nothing at the house which is 2 miles away.
Yup we are in trouble, especially in lower elevations. Next weekend looks too warm and after that it's going to be another week at least before it's cold enough.. That puts us close to the middle of February.
We're in trouble folks. Big SE ridge looks to build in after next weekend for a while at least according to the EPS and OP Euro. More rain of course too.
The mid Atlantic get some decent snow this run and a blizzard for the NE, trailing piece of energy from the Midwest gives some snow for the higher elevations on the backside