wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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Euro doesn't quite get it done. Starts off as mix in western NC North of 40 then goes over to rain. Not heavy qpf west of 77 but about .5 for most. The low is too far north even DC goes over to rain
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The first wave is trending stronger and stronger for Sunday night/Monday. West Virginia could get over 6 inches in spots and most of Western NC gets 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.
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Interesting map, I would have expected the darker blue and white to follow down the eastern slopes of the blue ridge more. I have seen nasty ice storms right along the escarpment and rain in the piedmont plenty of times.
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CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place
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Good to hear. I'm hoping we can get sleet and snow here instead of ZR but usually we get all 3 in these type of setups if the parent high is strong enough.
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It will be interesting to see how the NAM handles the CAD once it gets in range since it's usually closest to verification in these setups.
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Take with a grain of salt because of the cold bias but I 40 north should be paying this one close attention for ice storm possibilities.
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The Euro is very interesting, if the CAD is stronger it could be a serious ice storm for I 40 north
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Yea the Euro gives me hope as well.
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I think there is a chance for some light freezing rain for the foothills and maybe light snow for the mountains but I'm not seeing a big system, it looks miller b-ish to me.
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GFS is still no dice for the mid week storm after heavy rain Sunday night/Monday morning. DC gets a nice snow so there's that!
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Yea the models have went to big time suckage for both systems next week. The first one now more amped and stronger with 1 to 2 inches of rain area wide and the next one too weak and forms too late for any significant wintry weather. And after that it looks like a pattern change to warm. Afraid we may have to wait until January for our first legit winter storm threat...
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Its fascinating to see the differences when I drive to work in the mornings. Often at my house near the Catawba its in the 20s or near 30 and by the time I am halfway up Old Fort mountain it will be 45 and then back down in the 30s in Swannanoa.
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I don't think we have enough cold air around for a repeat of that one but that would be awesome. I think this could be more Elevation dependent unless the CAD high trends stronger.
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Going to be an interesting week for sure, especially for northern mountain folks.
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Brad P said no snow east of the mountains on Facebook so it must be true...
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The Canadian was pure insanity
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I was about to say the same thing. It holds that energy back too long or we would have had a wintry scenario
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That's crazy... I have 3 nights below 20 already. Last winter had about 5 total and our coldest night last winter was in early November.
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25 last night, our 4th night already of 25 or below. Last year we only had 7 all winter...
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Saw some flakes in Asheville before heading back down the mountain. Feels like winter
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One trend I have seen living here in foothills since about 2000 is snow less winters usually bring about snow less winters and its hard to break the cycle. The winters of 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 had very little snow as did the winters of 2011-12, 2012-13. Its almost like we alternate 3 year stretches of snowy winters with very little snow. I know there is more that goes into it but it's an interesting trend here over the past 20 years or so. Hopefully we buck that this winter.
