wncsnow

New RAP

GFS still looking good

Its possible we have a little less but I honestly think its overdone with the flow being from the SE then turning E and NE. I think 4-6 is a safe bet.

Still has me under 6 inches with that annoying leeside area but I think its overstating it.

Honestly they both suck outside 24 hours. I would say inside 24 hours the HRRR is much better

Its quite interesting noticing the same precip maximums as the meso low snow that forms in 2003. Obviously that was more of a strong clipper but this could have the same footprint but with more widespread totals. I could see someone getting 12-15" out of this in a small area.

Milky sun in Asheville

You're right its bigger

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

Best HRRR run so far

Slower and west is the theme still good for western carolinas

I think we are good as long as the ULL tracks where its progged to and the meso low delivers. Father NE towards the Triad has the best shot of dry air IMO.

It's a bit concerning they give the NAM that much weight