MD Snow

In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo...

One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. Notice even though the lpc is slightly stronger this run it is offset by a stronger lpc and cold push to our north.

Snow moving in baltimore north and west at 51hrs. It's coming in weaker. 850's pretty much the same. Still south of DC. Better cold press to our north west.

On the Euro...remember on Tuesday 72 hrs out from today’s event it had clear skies? Remember 72 hrs out from feb 16 it had like 2-4”? We ended up with partly sunny skies. 72 hrs out from last Wednesday’s storm it only had accumulating snow north and west of Baltimore. I ended up with 5” just south of b-more. The Euro hasn’t really been the most dependable at 2.5- 3 day leads recently. I’m not saying it’s not right but just that it definitely is not what it used to be.

They are probably all in on the euro solution. We’ve seen the icon and now the gfs show snow into the cities. Latest 12k Nam was weaker and colder, 0z cmc was weaker and colder, navgem has trended less amped and colder, fv3 has trended colder. The trend across guidance since 12z yesterday has been weaker and colder. Given the current catchup the globals are having to play with tonight’s coastal, I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to play catch-up with a weaker solution until game time on Sunday. Heck I could see it becoming a quick hitting 2-4/3-6 type event for many. But until the euro caves, they’ll probably remain bearish.

Gfs with the hit! What the heck. Model mayham!

Sleet mixing in in millersville.

3” in Glen Burnie. 29

That is a big run right there. First global to go big on the coastal enhancement idea.

At hr 14 you can already see improvements at h5.