MD Snow
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Everything posted by MD Snow
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Given the marginal temps and the heaviest rates being very close to the r/s line, there is probably going to be a very narrow band of accumulating snow. Even narrower than what is being forecasted. Less than an inch an hr won’t cut it imo. I honestly think areas that just barely stay all snow may have the best opportunity for higher acculations. It’s not like temps drop off into the 20’s the further north and west you go. The best you’re gonna get is 31-32 even if you’re in a really good location.
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Could change but this set-up is a classic elevation/rates deal. Without one or both of those you ain’t getting much. Doesn’t matter where you are.
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FYI that’s not area wide. Glad the northern crew looks to cash in.
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If you live near the cities hug the rgem, fv3, and hrdps.
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Anybody else concerned about how the models have trended drier and drier with this system? Something to watch today is total precip totals from this.
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48hrs...I said it ended as rain.
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FV3 keeps the cities all snow through 48hrs. Ends as a little light rain.
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Seems like no worse than a hold from 18z.
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3k NAM all snow through 46 hrs dc north.
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Nam stronger with the LPC but south through 39hrs.
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NAM colder with 850mb temps through 30 hrs.
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Imo the only reason the NAM’s weren’t all snow for the cities was because they were crazy amped. Don’t see a ton of support for running the LPC over the Delmarva.
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HRDPS all snow for the cities through 48hrs. All the mesos so far have us starting as all snow. RGEM stays all snow through the end us it's run. GFS and ICON have most N/W of cities staying all snow throughout.
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Not as good as 12z but that's more because it's was a weaker all around system at 18z.
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ha...GFS with a 1005mb sip in central SC at 54hrs? LOL All snow dc north and west. RGEM, ICON, and GFS support.
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Through 54hrs RGEM is a hit for many north and west of DC.
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ICON still mostly snow dc north and west. The outlier right now. Was a tick warmer than 12z though...
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Not really when you're dealing with the NAM's. They just shifted the lows about 100 miles from where they had them at 12z.
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3k looks better. Less amped...still snowing at 21z sunday north of dc... Edit- can't have the low running across the southern delmarva if we want snow into the cities.
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12k is about 1-2" before the flip sunday morning for the cities. man, that is close...get that low to track 100 miles south through nc to about 100 miles off the coast of oc and we'd be bombed.
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12k nam with snow breaking out at 15z sunday morning. The arctic boundary is pushing further southeast this run up in canada it's reflected in better looking 850's through 45hrs out. I'm beginning to think that we need to root for a stronger NS low...so far that's why we've seen improvements...
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18z 12kNAM ramping up the coastal. 3mb deeper through 20hrs and closer to the coast compared to 12z. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sunday/Monday if at all. ....Through 36hrs 850's are further south than 12z.
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Totally agree with you. To start march with the potential for three-four straight days of wintry weather is about as good as it gets. I'm not in the best place for the next two events but I'm enjoying tracking it almost as much as if I was. Hoping at least the northern crew can really cash in.
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Yup. The last three runs have had an ever so small creep north. Hopefully it reverses.
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Icon with the weaker NS and it’s reflected with less cold and slightly warmer solution.
