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Everything posted by Superstorm93
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I mean a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Gulf deserves some level of hype. We're very lucky with how things panned out and I'd rather have increased awareness that leads to a relatively low death toll than the opposite... If you want to talk about unnecessary hype then Lee is a storm that was blown way the hell out of proportion. -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Pretty wild how well some of the seasonal forecast models performed this year. The enhanced activity from the MDR and into the sub-tropics was pretty much nailed from the start of the season. -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
UKMET seasonal mean continues the theme of an active second half of the season +AN Precip and BN SLP across much of the MDR I think there's enough of a signal from the global means to assume that we'll have elevated areas of activity across the deep tropics, with somewhat reduced cyclone frequency in the Caribbean and Gulf. Obviously, it's impossible to say with confidence that the aforementioned areas will be "dead", but it'll certainly be quite interesting to watch things play out. -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The C3S is basically a "super ensemble" of all the global statistical climate models. The actual Euro seasonal came out last week. -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The new Euro seasonal model continues to show an exceptionally active remainder of the season. Little skeptical, but it's going to be rather interesting to watch this unfold over the next two months. I suppose we could rack up some ACE with several long-tracked Cape Verde storms if we have more intra-seasonal forcing than the giant WP standing wave, -
Taking a good deal of mid-level shear, which is also helping to entrain dry air from the west into the circulation. The odds have increased substantially that this will indeed be a victim of the graveyard.
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Superstorm93 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Been watching this stuff since 2006 and I can't recall a June where this was already this much activity in the East Atlantic We're going to need to bump seasonal predictions up quite a bit if this becomes a trend. -
Shallow but consistent convection has really done its job to help organize the circulation. I'd imagine this is a depression by early Monday
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Quite possibly the dullest May I can remember in the last 10+ years. Haven't even had a lightning strike since April over here.
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Thanks! Where exactly in the Bronx? Trying to get an idea of where the gradient set up!
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Superstorm93 replied to George001's topic in New England
500 trends have been flatter, but you guys have the latitude to play with this go around. Overrunning and the secondary low (if the primary dies fast enough) -
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Superstorm93 replied to George001's topic in New England
Really like this signal for you guys. Hoping you can cash in big time with the overrunning and potential secondary low. Ski resorts need some loving. -
Assuming nothings sticking to pavements there?
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Was just about to ask if anyone saw anything with that high Z/low CC band that moved through...
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
Superstorm93 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
Superstorm93 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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New snow or depth? Trying to get a grasp of what this event did up there
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Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Superstorm93 replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Anyone have any good obs/pics out of Harrisburg? -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Superstorm93 replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Awesome. Keep the pics coming. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Superstorm93 replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nice! How are the flakes? -
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We also have *this* which I would have never expected to show up Way out there, but still interesting to look at.