mreaves

And that was just for the microbrews you brought home!

I think anywhere in western Maine is going to be overrun with sleds because of proximity to NH. Many people from further away from the state line that I have talked to over the years at the snowmobile show haven't even been all that aware there is an open weekend. I'd probably want to get to at least Millinocket. I haven't been that far up. I'm still unsure whether we are going to do it though.

May have to travel next weekend to Maine for the open weekend. Sleds are already on the trailer and may not be taken off this weekend. I do like to see the NAM reduce qpf output. I can at least have something to tell myself is a positive sign.

I am hoping that we don't go back to square one as Lava Rock suggests, though I know my location is slightly better to withstand this crappy system. BTV seems to think we get a sloppy mix SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 435 AM EST Thursday...Still anticipate a wintry event to occur over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east- southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However, it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet- bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all this...have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in. Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing, making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging. Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later forecasts.

That would be Braaaap braaaap kind sir.

BTV/Waterbury/Montpelier corridor in VT. Probably somewhere closer to BTV

Love to do that over again as long as the other thing that happened to me doesn’t happen again. My boiler died and the service guys had a hell of a time getting the new one in the basement.

But, but I want to buy it.

I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat

The car thermo ranged between -10° & 4° on the way into work

Living in VT, there are no tolls. When I go to Mass or somewhere else with tolls, I’ll just drive through the EZ Pass lane anyway. They’ll send you a bill.

Was just thinking the same. We are starting to rebuild a useful pack and I don’t want to lose what we have. If we have to get light snows to keep what we have, I’ll take it.

I guess I wasn’t paying attention but I didn’t expect light snow tonight. Roads actually got a little greasy on the way home from grocery shopping. 10F on the car thermo.

I think the Packers should retreat to the panic room

2.25” here. A little underwhelming, not that the 5” BTV progged for is all that overwhelming. Probably get a little more overnight. Went through some moderate type stuff on the way home from Waterbury. This stuff pretty much blew off the travel lane on 89. Did pass one car that was having a hard time going up the hill between exit 8 and 7. Looked like an SUV so they must have had really bad tires.

Light snow 8F

I was just kidding around. There is a numerical aspect to the criteria but it varies depending on location. I thing OceanWx posted an explanatory map a while back.

Because we are manly men who can handle the snow. We don’t need no stinkin’ Warnings.

He’d get fired by his employer?

-7/-11

-2°/-10° currently at MPV

The NWS employee just over the hill reported 8.2" so I was not too far off with my guess VERMONT ...Addison County... Ripton 8.0 920 AM 1/16 Fire Dept/Rescue 1 NE South Lincoln 6.7 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer Monkton 6.5 951 AM 1/16 Public 3 S Mt. Philo State 6.0 840 AM 1/16 Public 2 SE New Haven 4.3 800 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Vergennes 4.2 730 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 1 S Vergennes 2.8 615 AM 1/16 Public 1 WNW Orwell 2.5 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS N Middlebury 0.5 400 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Caledonia County... Groton 8.0 358 PM 1/16 Public 4 WSW Groton 8.0 300 PM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Saint Johnsbury 6.1 400 PM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 2 WNW Wells River 2.6 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS N Danville 2.2 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 E East Lyndon 1.9 800 AM 1/16 Public 2 S Wheelock 1.9 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Danville 1.8 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 N Lyndonville 1.5 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Chittenden County... 4 NNE Underhill 8.0 700 PM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Hinesburg 8.0 758 PM 1/16 Public 1 E Nashville 7.4 102 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 1 NNW Burlington 6.4 539 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 2 NW Westford 6.2 941 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 2 SSW Milton 6.0 445 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 1 NE South Burlingto 6.0 400 PM 1/16 NWS Office Jericho 6.0 1140 AM 1/16 Public 1 S Essex Center 5.7 926 AM 1/16 NWS Employee 2 SE Sand Bar State 5.5 422 PM 1/16 Public Williston 5.5 942 AM 1/16 Public Essex Center 5.0 1000 AM 1/16 NWS Employee WSW Williston 5.0 830 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 NNW Williston 4.0 745 AM 1/16 NWS Employee 3 SSE Richmond 4.0 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Burlington 4.0 130 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 2 SW Milton 4.0 130 PM 1/16 NWS Employee 1 SW South Burlingto 3.8 715 AM 1/16 Public 1 NNE Huntington 3.7 800 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Burlington Intl Airp 3.1 650 AM 1/16 ASOS Colchester 3.0 655 PM 1/16 Public Winooski 3.0 630 AM 1/16 Public 5 NNE Underhill 3.0 740 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 N Williston 2.5 615 AM 1/16 Public North Underhill 2.3 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer ...Essex County... Maidstone 4.0 100 PM 1/16 Public Island Pond 2.0 915 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 2 NNW Lunenburg 0.6 600 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Franklin County... Bakersfield 8.5 700 PM 1/16 Public St. Albans 4.4 230 PM 1/16 Public ESE Fairfax 3.8 900 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Swanton 1.3 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Lamoille County... Morrisville 7.0 512 PM 1/16 Public Waterville 5.0 400 PM 1/16 Public SW Stowe 3.0 800 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 3 N Smugglers Notch 2.0 730 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 3 NE Hyde Park 1.5 645 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Orange County... Topsham 7.7 1043 AM 1/16 Public Williamstown 7.3 107 PM 1/16 Public Brookfield 6.2 1141 AM 1/16 Public Chelsea 5.7 846 AM 1/16 At 1309' elevation. Tunbridge 5.7 930 AM 1/16 Elevation 1100'. 3 SW Braintree 5.5 900 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE West Fairlee 5.2 745 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 E Corinth Corners 5.1 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 2 ESE Vershire 5.0 745 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Thetford Center 5.0 115 PM 1/16 Public 2 SSW Corinth Corner 4.7 730 AM 1/16 Public West Fairlee 4.0 630 AM 1/16 Broadcast Media Bradford 2.0 740 AM 1/16 Public ...Orleans County... 4 NNE Greensboro 5.8 620 PM 1/16 CoCoRaHS North Troy 5.0 608 PM 1/16 Public Newport 3.0 832 AM 1/16 Public 2 NNW Greensboro 1.9 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 7 SE Morgan 0.9 500 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Westfield 0.5 650 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Rutland County... Wallingford 5.1 330 PM 1/16 Public 4 W Danby 3.0 130 PM 1/16 Public 2 W Pawlet 3.0 115 PM 1/16 Public 1 SSE West Rutland 2.7 800 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Middletown Spr 2.3 715 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Benson 2.0 655 AM 1/16 Public 4 E Poultney 2.0 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 N Rutland 1.1 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS ...Washington County... 1 SW East Barre 8.2 1215 PM 1/16 NWS Employee Barre 8.0 759 PM 1/16 Public 4 ESE Marshfield 7.5 620 PM 1/16 Trained Spotter Middlesex 6.0 1200 PM 1/16 Public 2 NNE Waterbury Cent 5.0 1121 AM 1/16 Trained Spotter Montpelier 5.0 145 PM 1/16 Public 4 WNW Waitsfield 5.0 730 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Waitsfield 5.0 920 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Worcester 5.0 1123 AM 1/16 Public 3 SE Bolton 4.3 800 AM 1/16 Public 1 ESE Plainfield 3.8 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 2 N Northfield 3.5 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 E Cabot 3.3 830 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 SW East Calais 3.3 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Waterbury 2.8 600 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW Woodbury 2.6 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 2 W Worcester 2.6 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer 1 N Cabot 2.0 700 AM 1/16 Public ...Windsor County... 1 SE West Norwich 5.3 947 PM 1/16 Public Rochester 4.0 902 AM 1/16 Elevation 940' 2 NE Rochester 3.4 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE North Hartland 3.1 700 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer Weathersfield 3.0 814 AM 1/16 Public 1 E Woodstock 3.0 800 AM 1/16 Co-Op Observer Woodstock 3.0 445 PM 1/16 Public 2 NW Hartland 3.0 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 3 N Pomfret 3.0 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS Hartland 3.0 800 AM 1/16 Public 2 S West Windsor 2.7 745 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS 1 N Quechee 2.3 700 AM 1/16 CoCoRaHS

Here is BTV's current thinking