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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/high-winds-leave-thousands-of-montrealers-in-the-dark/amp?__twitter_impression=true Wow
  2. OSUmetstud
    The positive anomalies over the eastern namer and west and central atlantic are factored into the nao calculation from cpc anyway.
  3. OSUmetstud
    I dont agree. The strong ridging further south shows that theres no effective blocking response. It looks more like the -epo +nao winters weve seen of late as opposed to the 2000s classic -NAOs.
  4. OSUmetstud
    The cfs is definitely -nao. The cansips is debatable. It doesnt look like the positive anomalies in northern greenland are affecting the upstream pattern.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Strongest winds were on the canadian side as the low took a while to get going. Kingston to 107 km/h (66 mph) and Montreal to 105 km/h (65 mph) is not too shabby. Im still a bit suspicious of port colburne obs. I know its on the pier but the ob of 102g130 km/h is super intense and seemingly out of whack compared to other sites and the synoptics.
  6. OSUmetstud
    The wind was a medium type high wind event. Nothing particularly special. It was early in the year with leaves still on trees and saturated unfrozen ground That makes a big difference with re: damage and outages. The sieche was solid and i believe highest in a while (10 ft 6") but some of that is due to the very high antecedent lake levels (running 4 ft over low water datum).
  7. OSUmetstud
    Yeah that cansips look is pretty similar to last few winters. The cfs look is different more of a classic -nao pattern
  8. OSUmetstud
    Newest Cansips and CFS. No obvious red flags.
  9. OSUmetstud
    My mom had a tree fall on the shed last night (West Seneca).
  10. OSUmetstud
    Yes, I remember that study. I don't believe the new FV3 has changed much, the GFS and GEM have been running toe to toe and considerably behind the ECMWF and UKMET for some time.
  11. OSUmetstud
    These were chosen based on best matches re: summer into fall for ENSO, TNI, PDO, AMO, QBO, NAO and solar. I haven't checked on the snowfall result in those years for the northeast.
  12. OSUmetstud
    I didn't post them, just give me a minute.
  13. OSUmetstud
    Alright, I grabbed a couple very weak El Ninos in my analog set. too, but most of mine are ENSO neutral just given the available guidance.
  14. OSUmetstud
    Dynamical guidance is in solid agreement on ENSO neutral conditions. Are you assuming its wrong? Or do you think the very warm nino 4 will keep it acting like a weak El Nino?
  15. OSUmetstud
    Ahh thanks. I was trying to come up a with a whitty interpretation of NBM but failed.
  16. OSUmetstud
    We will only have fv3 mos?
  17. OSUmetstud
    You should be thankful model guidance isnt always perfect. Otherwise we wouldnt have jobs.
  18. OSUmetstud
    System5_guide.pdf
  19. OSUmetstud
  20. OSUmetstud
    Only in the sense that is "gradient" or compressed flow pattern. Youll never see those rediculous anomalies on a seasonal model but theres large enough differences in the epo region to keep the cold air from invading Canada.
  21. OSUmetstud
    Yeah im not super keen on that look, but maybe it works out. Looks like last feb out here. Cold and dry.
  22. OSUmetstud
    New UKMET Glosea5 is out today. Looks a bit nina-ish. Weak -EPO, -PNA, +NAO se ridge.
  23. OSUmetstud
    Hes intellectually dishonest. "Every cold front in the GOM" just stop.
  24. OSUmetstud
    I hope cranky is satisfied.
  25. OSUmetstud
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