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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    As do I. But seasonal forecasting is still a budding field with low confidence so I'm not sure if there's much difference in skill between a forecaster's forecast and a model forecast.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Jma looks okay to start December too for what it's worth.
  3. OSUmetstud
    The seasonal didn't show a torchy December.
  4. OSUmetstud
    It probably wasn't there lol. There has been problems this morning.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Yeah we got 45" that month. I think there 2 other decent events beyond the big storm on November 20th. Must have just been cold and dry there, interesting.
  6. OSUmetstud
    Interesting, thanks. I figured bigger storms are harder to come by, but maybe a smattering of minor to moderate events could be done? How about something like November 2000?
  7. OSUmetstud
    Growing up in the lakes November can be very kind, even epic, but I wouldn't think a wintry November in New England is too unusual.
  8. OSUmetstud
    fake news!
  9. OSUmetstud
    I'd go for suppression and sheared mess to the southeast over cutter. The cold air dump from the -epo block and fast flow and mean trough position are decidely against a great lakes track.
  10. OSUmetstud
    The UKMET Glosea5 last fall forecasted a fairly strong -NAO for the winter. It didn't verify. But I mean if were just looking for the post-2013 era, the NAO has nearly constantly positive through winter.
  11. OSUmetstud
    November ECMWF Seasonal is out. +PNA/+NAO pattern. Big difference for December from October forecast with a beatdown of the WAR and lower heights and pressure over eastern North America extending into the central Atlantic.
  12. OSUmetstud
    That's happen with off-hour runs the past two days from what I saw. Kinda weird.
  13. OSUmetstud
    Pope ftw
  14. OSUmetstud
    Nazis, dude
  15. OSUmetstud
    Light a candle for the archbishop
  16. OSUmetstud
    Weirdly I find the navgem and ecmwf often agree even with the very different verification scores.
  17. OSUmetstud
    Look another stj warm sector. These last few winters have killed me.
  18. OSUmetstud
    Kuch does okay in marginal airmasses (it will shower lower than (10:1) and mid level magic areas but otherwise isn't super helpful.
  19. OSUmetstud
    It's on the emc page. It throws mid level warmth too far north of a sfc low so it over mixes but if anything it has a cold bias at the surface. That snow map from the gdps showed southern areas suffering from a torched bl not from too much ip/zr.
  20. OSUmetstud
    The ggem has a cold bias at the surface. Its warm bias is centered in the 850-700 layer.
  21. OSUmetstud
    The gdps has the same sfc cold bias but it more properly diagnoses warm noses in the 850 to 700mb layer.
  22. OSUmetstud
    The thing with the gfs that bothers me is its inability to see the warm nose. It's useless for mixed precip but that was a thing before and after the fv3 upgrade. It's cold bias is through the whole lower atmosphere.
  23. OSUmetstud
    If a winter storm warm sectors St. John's, lock it in.
  24. OSUmetstud
    True, at least Tidbits puts where they are getting their baseline, wxbell just posts "anomaly."
  25. OSUmetstud
    Mike V's maps looked more like Tropical Tidbits for the CanSIPS. It does look like the Weatherbell maps have erroneous ridging over central and northern Greenland. Weird.
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