OSUmetstud

Yeah but the end of the sentence mentions the SGZ, so I think they mean the entire lower atmosphere as a whole, which i agree with. The boundary layer per say supports some lake enhanced precipitation. If you had a legit lake enhanced setup you would be upping ratios considerably over 10:1 because you would be getting dendrites from the convection mixing in with the crappier flakes from the synoptic storm. They mention the lake enhancement at the end of the storm, which would do exactly as you said its probably going to.

I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=KBUF&format=raw&date=&hours=6

http://meteocentre.com/doc/metar.html fill yer boots. It's too tough to explain thoroughly in a single post. There's a lot to metar reporting code.

KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018 During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing.

The snowfall amount itself was just posted because of the storm.. NWS twitter and NWS chat is a public resource though.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201911120218-KBUF-SXUS71-RERBUF

Maybe like 2-3 cm for Mississauga/Hamilton, with more like 8-14 cm for Niagara (Most east and on the escarpment).

I think another 3-6" just looking at trends.

I feel pretty confident on Niagara Frontier getting into double digits.

Yeah, that lines up well with the 700mb frontogenesis axis. 1-2"/hr type stuff as the lift deepens into the SGZ.

5.9" so far at BUF

BUF has 5" otg in their metar, just like ROC.

I thought cuse and oswego were going to get their best snow Tuesday morning. This current stuff is junk due to a combo of dry air and only low level lift resulting in heavily rimed flakes and a bit of sleet as there is a weak warm nose just a touch above zero there currently.

The new weeklies have a positive nao anyway but it looks "serviceable"

It's called riming. Its not sleet. The good lift is beginning to move in so rates and snowfall quality will increase.

Dry air and weak lift does funny thinks to ptype. The niagara frontier will be fine.

Rates across the Niagara frontier will suffer a bit through early afternoon due to poor snow growth and the best 850-700 fronto over southern Ontario. Once the lift collapses to the southeast the niagara frontier should go to town this evening with rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour at times. Lake enhancement is marginal due to no dendritic snow crystal production in the low levels until about 06z as the storm pulls away. BUF 10" IAG 11" ROC 13" SYR 5"

Go Bills!

Yeah they might have more sref or eps based algos than I have but in the end I'm pretty sure the forecaster issues the watch based on that stuff and feel/experience.

Well put a line or two in our synopsis for our clients if something big appears to be coming in the next 3 to 5 days. This storm never really looked big until later yesterday; I thought.

BUF has some of the most stringent watch and warning definitions in the country.

Those early morning runs were still not definitely warning level...they were right around that 6 to 10 inches in 24 h range. Either way...its going to snow, enjoy.

But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm.

It's the watch definition. All forecasts by nature are subjective (using a combination of objective and subjective data)...so if the forecaster don't feel 50 percent confident for 7" in 12 h and/or 9" in 24 h it won't be issued. I do the same thing in my work.