OSUmetstud

Judah? Meh. Lol

You'd probably want a touch more aleutian ridging in the composite to have more confidence on "better than average" snowfall.

I don't think he would have posted that if he thought the pac was going to be terrible. I hate having to decipher hm posts though.

The old NAO calculation used the SLP anomaly differential, but the new CPC one uses a 500mb height anomaly function. The AO is still calculated using SLP/1000mb heights.

This nice pattern for snows makes me a little more anxious than normal for winter to start. It's a bit frustrating to see the nice blocking and storm track and its just a few weeks too early.

Okay. But it was plainly clear he didn't make a forecast on one model run. That's all I was saying.

Eric webb? No. He's been posting about a warm signal for like a week on Twitter. He isn't living and dying on one model run.

Thanks Ted.

I think he just makes maps lol

Ben Noll has his newest seasonal ecwmf and ukmet snowfall anomaly charts available https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet

Thanks, and I'm guessing light winds are important, too? Or not as important as RH?

Yeah i have the same problem when I tried.

Yeah, thanks. I would think frozen ground and snowpack would help, doesn't allow absorption and the water can quickly freeze from both below and above.

Yeah, I know, I feel like it mostly a shot in the dark when forecasting. I mean I know generally speaking sharp temperature drops are one of things that really helps, but there's so much more to it. I was hoping someone did some modeling. I can't find anything on the aurora project website which is a collaborative effort on road weather forecasting that my company has contributed to. We had a sneaky re-freeze Tuesday morning where there was damp/wet ground and light winds and then pavement temperatures dropped to about 28F in the morning as it cleared out. Not a flash freeze per say, but still there a couple accidents around and light coating of ice in some areas. The re-freeze thought might have happened last night was mitigated by strong winds and drying dewpoints, so only a few icy puddles were left from yesterday's rain.

Does anyone have information or some principles or criteria for how to determine if the water leftover on a road surface from rain or snowmelt with refreeze before it evaporates? I can't seem to find much online for guidelines.

I think the most meaningful thing for this would actually be to grade yourself vs. climatology. This applies to everyone of course, not just you. The whole point of this exercise should be to get skill over climatology in the long hall.

Sounds kinda awesome

Come to Canada where every identifier starts with CY. Then you only have two letters so its tougher to figure out lol.

Some decent -NAO development beyond day 7.

The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw.

Yeah, I mean models are pretty notorious for focusing too much precipitation in cold season northeast of lows near low level warm advection maximas and not focusing enough precipitation in the deformation zone northwest of lows. The other issue, of course, is that even if the qpf in the warm area of the low is only slightly undermodeled, 850 WAA with 850-700mb temperatures of zero to minus 8 is going to yield shit flake production.

I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers.

000 NOUS41 KBUF 120613 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-121813- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 113 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2019 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... BUFFALO AIRPORT 9.4 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OFFICIAL NWS OBS 2 SE WEST SENECA 6.5 IN 1040 PM 11/11 PUBLIC 1 WSW AKRON 5.5 IN 1000 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 6 NNE CHAUMONT 4.9 IN 0930 PM 11/11 PUBLIC ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER AIRPORT 8.6 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OTHER FEDERAL 2 NW ROCHESTER 7.5 IN 1115 PM 11/11 TRAINED SPOTTER &&

ROC has been running behind BUF on accumulations so far.

KBUF 120454Z 03007KT 1/2SM R23/4500V5500FT SN FZFG VV009 M04/M06 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP149 SNINCR 1/9 P0005 T10391056 400221039 $ 9" otg now