OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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No snowfall methods that I know take wind speed nto account so if its super windy, ratios should be adjusted down a bit.
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Cobb05 integrates temp moisture and omega through the whole column to determine ratios. Cobb11 takes the same method but adjusted for more realistic ratios per climatology. Theres a paper or a description around somewhere. Way better than just kuchera or 10:1 imo.
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Best 700 fronto has migrated to our nw but that collapse back this afternoon anyway.
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Really nice convective elements coming in from the se.
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CYYT 171400Z 06036G45KT 1/8SM R11/1000FT/N R16/0600FT/N +SN BLSN VV002 M04/M04 A2920 RMK SN8 /S14/ PRESFR SLP899 best winds are around 00z this evening.
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4" in the past hour! Plows are now off the roads.
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So it begins. About 2 to 4 inches across the city so far. Blizzard conditions started this past hour.
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We eagerly await.
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I have about 4 inches in the forecast for you. Ratios look nice at least. Maybe 6 to 8 or even a bit more for sw ns.
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I guess it's just the flow is so compressed the low can't gain latitude? If anything I've noticed higher heights in the se over time.
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decent shift south on latest rdps, has the low near the MA/NH border Thursday morning.
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Thanks. I'd guess qpf error is greater than snow ratio error from a forecasting standpoint but still good to look at.
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Does anyone know of any literature or documentation on the degree of which wind speeds affect snow ratios?
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How many will perish?
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Looks like a severe weather outbreak prog lol.
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Yeah I wouldn't mind a tick south for myself as this exists the coast.
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That se ridge keeps getting a touch stronger every run putting the low a bit further north as it exists the coast.
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Yeah, true. I should have couched that to say it appears its schooled the other guidance at this time.
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I might have to worry about a changeover to rain at some point here now lol.
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ICON had a cutter, but that was only other piece of guidance which has some amplitude.
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Yeah, the EPS and ECMWF has schooled other guidance imo with this system. It wasn't just a gfs issue either, all other guidance was very weak with the features and had destructive wave interference.
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I thought this has made the rounds before. I feel like I got the link from the forum at some point.
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This guy. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html
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Extended reg has a 1002mb low over the benchmark on Thursday morning and some snow for CNE.
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I thought it was pretty obvious that the op gfs has been wrong on this one the past few days...shearing out the vort to nothingness.
