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OSUmetstud

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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    Flakes are a bit bigger in west seneca. Looks like moisture is deeper as the 700-500 deformation zone swings in from the northwest.
  2. OSUmetstud
    0.50 is criteria. It's been slippery for sure but damage and power outages are minimal for those numbers.
  3. OSUmetstud
    It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold.
  4. OSUmetstud
    I was think a touch after rush hour but I guess it could be pretty close depending on timing.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Going to be kinda interesting. Theres an initial period of light to moderate snow overnight into early morning with the first wave/low, then it may even stop during the rush hour period then another period of light to moderate light friday morning into the afternoon as the last and most intense low passes by to the southeast.
  6. OSUmetstud
  7. OSUmetstud
    Euro is going to be good in think. Southern shortwave is sharper and more negative compared to 06z and 00z runs.
  8. OSUmetstud
    They'll wait for the ecmwf and for the normal 4 pm package id think. I think Monroe to Oswego county is a given. Erie and Niagara is still more on the fence.
  9. OSUmetstud
    Ways to say gfs sucks without saying gfs sucks.
  10. OSUmetstud
  11. OSUmetstud
    Gefs is much more robust than gfs. It seemed a bit off given that most other guidance trended west at 12z
  12. OSUmetstud
    Ukmet has an additional 0.7 qpf for buf and 1.2 for roc.
  13. OSUmetstud
    Yeah unfortunately 25 year old died going out to visit a friend during the storm. I believe he had some mental issues.
  14. OSUmetstud
    New rdps coming out now looks very nice for western areas.
  15. OSUmetstud
    Estimated gust to 98 mph at the airport.
  16. OSUmetstud
    Yeah it was something else.
  17. OSUmetstud
    Yeah that's where I live. I forecast the weather up there.
  18. OSUmetstud
    I meant high. Sorry was there something else confusing?
  19. OSUmetstud
    Yes, I was there lol. It was something like 955mb. But that was pushing up against a 1042 mb high over quebec.
  20. OSUmetstud
    It's a long wave trough with embedded areas of increased lift and vorticity. But i think if you're going to run a proper snowstorm you'd want a more solo shortwave that can throw more lift and precipitation northwest of the surface low.
  21. OSUmetstud
    It's a wave ripping up an existing baroclinic zone so it's not as intense as the slp implies. It's not like a single low exploding to the south and tracking to the ne.
  22. OSUmetstud
    Yeah it's not a slam dunk imo for 7 in 12 or 9 in 24 which is what warning criteria is.
  23. OSUmetstud
    It seems like all system go for maybe an additional 4 to 8 type deal for BUF. 6-10 if everything breaks right. The 12z nam is correcting east from it's more amplified 00z and 06z runs and coming back towards the guidance pack.
  24. OSUmetstud
    You actually end up doing yourself a disservice by throwing at 06 and 18z runs. Because there is a measurable difference in skill between, let's say, a t+42 model prog and a t+48 model prog.
  25. OSUmetstud
    That's old school before huge amounts of non- balloon data assimilation. No measurable difference nowadays though the belief is still very prevalent in the community.
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