They have plenty of mjo and enso regression analysis on their website. They're not just blending models or using the cfs. They know just as much as anyone else out there re: seasonal forecast which is still to say not that much.
The ukmet and ecwmf seasonal were both good highlighting that wet area over the southeast in their October forecasts.
I believe generally all the agencies and models were too cold over the north-central us.
Cpc had equal chances across the northern tier/western great lakes and warm anomalies for the southern 2/3 and the pac nw and new england in the fall in advance of winter. It's actually the only area of the country they missed on because they were too "cold."
They missed the high precipitation anomalies across the southeast. Did well with the precipitation anomalies in the great lakes. They also missed the positive precipitation anomalies in the pac nw.
Good forecast this winter overall I'd say.
Hmm Feb 84 was a traditional synoptic storm with LO enhancement in northerly flow. No enhancement from the SW.
I'd probably consider it BUF's largest synoptic storm.
Yeah I think northern Maine, northern New Brunswick, and eastern Newfoundland are the only places with significant positive snowfall anomalies in eastern North America lol.
The 40 cm subsurface temperature across nova scotia is near freezing on average and only above freezing in far southwest areas. If you post "warm ground" arguments in southeast canada in late feb and march you should get your ****ing degree revoked.