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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    Its total bullshit. The 2017-2018 flu deaths are not confirmed laboratory tests. Lab flu deaths are minimal; they model them every year.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Looks like Erie County is at plateau?
  3. OSUmetstud
    Storrm was weak sauce before changeover to rain. Picked up about 2 to 3 sloppy inches.
  4. OSUmetstud
    Yeah. It's actually been pretty quiet the past 3 to 4 weeks...only 2.5" since March 25th. We still average a foot in April here and have had big April's in the past. The April record here is like 60".
  5. OSUmetstud
    That is true.
  6. OSUmetstud
    Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory.
  7. OSUmetstud
    It's been trying to trend south to at least delay changeover and give us a higher percentage of snow.
  8. OSUmetstud
    It's why they call it the "flu burden" because the flu deaths are modeled in such a way that deaths indirectly related to the flu are incluced there too.
  9. OSUmetstud
    We have 4" in Franklin, but mentioned the possibility of as much as 6"
  10. OSUmetstud
    Franklin is leaning towards just salting.
  11. OSUmetstud
    You guys think there will be power outages with this?
  12. OSUmetstud
    Those percentages look like proportion of deaths not fatality rate for each cohort.
  13. OSUmetstud
    Idk. You seem like a dude who mainly cares about Americans.
  14. OSUmetstud
    I mean we've had triple the deaths of swine flu...
  15. OSUmetstud
    I think some of this might be a function of fatalities from days previous being recorded for that day. So you end up seeing deaths lag longer than the modeling thinks they should.
  16. OSUmetstud
    Sorry that was IFR. I think that study also assumed a relatively low Ro at 2.2-2.6. Some studies I have seen have shown it as high as 5.7. There was a lot of questions about the German antibody study specificity from what I saw. The Iceland CFR of 0.4% might be the best case scenario imo. But even there, the population is homogeneous and healthy, very unlike a place like NYC or the Bible Belt where the fatality rate would undoubtedly be higher.
  17. OSUmetstud
    Well sure, I agree. That study didn't use the reported CFR at the time either which i believe was 3.4%.
  18. OSUmetstud
    Yes, one study that showed no interventions showed 2 million dead. I don't understand how that's particularly relevant since we have done lots of intervention. It had an estimated CFR of 0.9%. I haven't seen enough to think that CFR is completely unreasonable. Have you?
  19. OSUmetstud
    Which models are we discussing? One study, from University of College London that supposed 2 million could die in the US without any intervention. I've seen anywhere from 60-80K modeled on IMHE through August with all the interventions in place and the model that the Trump Admin discussed had 100-240K. I'm not sure what time frame the last estimate was for, though. We're at 32K and it's tough to say we've peaked yet given we're not at the top of the curve.
  20. OSUmetstud
    Spain is through the apex as of this morning. They have more recoveries than new cases.
  21. OSUmetstud
    I had to do some updates for Freeport/Augusta when i came onto shift tonight. Temperatures running under guidance, strong lift and being under the surface low is completely cutting off the marine layer.
  22. OSUmetstud
    Day trading isn't all that different than gambling. Just be careful and don't put in more than you can afford to lose.
  23. OSUmetstud
    We don't have a robust screening/testing program...talk to some health care professionals. That's not to say Europe is much better. States and companies are ignoring CDC recommendations. See South Korea for a country who has seemed to excel in this situation. I'm not including China in that since it's a bit easier to lock things down when you're a police state.
  24. OSUmetstud
    The testing in the US so far has been a total cluster****.
  25. OSUmetstud
    Yeah i can't seem to find the article I was reading. I'm pretty sure it was legit, like from the WHO or the CDC about it seemingly spreading slower than the flu even though the Ro is higher than that of the seasonal flu.
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