OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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Its total bullshit. The 2017-2018 flu deaths are not confirmed laboratory tests. Lab flu deaths are minimal; they model them every year.
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
OSUmetstud replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like Erie County is at plateau? -
Storrm was weak sauce before changeover to rain. Picked up about 2 to 3 sloppy inches.
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Yeah. It's actually been pretty quiet the past 3 to 4 weeks...only 2.5" since March 25th. We still average a foot in April here and have had big April's in the past. The April record here is like 60".
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That is true.
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Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory.
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It's been trying to trend south to at least delay changeover and give us a higher percentage of snow.
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It's why they call it the "flu burden" because the flu deaths are modeled in such a way that deaths indirectly related to the flu are incluced there too.
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We have 4" in Franklin, but mentioned the possibility of as much as 6"
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Franklin is leaning towards just salting.
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You guys think there will be power outages with this?
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Those percentages look like proportion of deaths not fatality rate for each cohort.
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Idk. You seem like a dude who mainly cares about Americans.
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I mean we've had triple the deaths of swine flu...
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I think some of this might be a function of fatalities from days previous being recorded for that day. So you end up seeing deaths lag longer than the modeling thinks they should.
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Sorry that was IFR. I think that study also assumed a relatively low Ro at 2.2-2.6. Some studies I have seen have shown it as high as 5.7. There was a lot of questions about the German antibody study specificity from what I saw. The Iceland CFR of 0.4% might be the best case scenario imo. But even there, the population is homogeneous and healthy, very unlike a place like NYC or the Bible Belt where the fatality rate would undoubtedly be higher.
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Well sure, I agree. That study didn't use the reported CFR at the time either which i believe was 3.4%.
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Yes, one study that showed no interventions showed 2 million dead. I don't understand how that's particularly relevant since we have done lots of intervention. It had an estimated CFR of 0.9%. I haven't seen enough to think that CFR is completely unreasonable. Have you?
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Which models are we discussing? One study, from University of College London that supposed 2 million could die in the US without any intervention. I've seen anywhere from 60-80K modeled on IMHE through August with all the interventions in place and the model that the Trump Admin discussed had 100-240K. I'm not sure what time frame the last estimate was for, though. We're at 32K and it's tough to say we've peaked yet given we're not at the top of the curve.
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
OSUmetstud replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Spain is through the apex as of this morning. They have more recoveries than new cases. -
I had to do some updates for Freeport/Augusta when i came onto shift tonight. Temperatures running under guidance, strong lift and being under the surface low is completely cutting off the marine layer.
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Almost nothing? Lol. Its hitting the west coast and nova scotia.
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6.5" from part 1, in freezing rain for the past few hours under the low. Maybe well get another few inches on the backside.
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You guys stole some of my snow I think. I'll allow it this year. Hoping for like 8 to 10" at this point tonight into wednesday.
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EPS is more subdued for sure. Thinking that 10" is way more likely than 20" but still looks solid.
