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Tatamy

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  1. Tatamy
    Hurricane watches for SE NE and Tropical Storm watches for LI to start.
  2. Tatamy
    18z HWRF is further east near Cape Cod while the 18z HMON landfalls in the Hamptons.
  3. Tatamy
    18z GFS is about 50 miles west of the 12z run with landfall in Buzzards Bay.
  4. Tatamy
    I am thinking anywhere between the Hamptons and Buzzards Bay. The wild card is greater than expected intensification Friday and Saturday and the potential for a hook to the left tucking it in closer to the coast.
  5. Tatamy
    That is why the Ukmet run surprises me. Once the data from first flight was uploaded the GFS went east. Maybe the Ukmet will go back east tonight. Let’s wait on the ensembles.
  6. Tatamy
    12z Euro continues to be east and weaker. 12z HWRF/HMON are aimed at the vicinity of New Bedford,MA. 12z Ukmet is west. Too early to write this one off.
  7. Tatamy
    Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels? I think they were actually going to send it out again.
  8. Tatamy
    Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding.
  9. Tatamy
    Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy? Those impacts spread beyond the beach. They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.
  10. Tatamy
    So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC. Okay.
  11. Tatamy
    That is not correct. Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight. The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.
  12. Tatamy
    2.95” with the overnight deluge out here.
  13. Tatamy
    Quite a deluge over the past few hours from the remnants of Fred. 2.64” so far.
  14. Tatamy
    I second that request. Plenty of lightning so far with these storms.
  15. Tatamy
    12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west.
  16. Tatamy
    Tornado watch issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania.
  17. Tatamy
    Bingo!!
  18. Tatamy
    With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning.
  19. Tatamy
    There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one. The models are still working it. There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real.
  20. Tatamy
    From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge.
  21. Tatamy
    06z HMON winds at 114 hours
  22. Tatamy
    06z GFS
  23. Tatamy
    Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. As currently projected there will be coastal flooding impacts from Henri. This could be the most significant impact from the storm in our area.
  24. Tatamy
    Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. The track and timing of this storm are going to have coastal flooding impacts to the mid Atlantic region and northeast.
  25. Tatamy
    They confirmed today that this was in fact a tornado. It was rated EF0 and the path ran for 3/4 mile in a remote wooded area near the Lakehurst Naval Air Station. They needed an aerial survey in order to get confirmation.
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