Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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18z Euro would be 3-5” for most with 4-7” in the parts of central and southern NJ that jackpotted on Monday. Eastern NE jackpots with this run. -
21z RAP is a weenie run for the area.
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Steady light snow at Ocean Beach now.
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Steady light snow at the Ponquogue Bridge in Hampton Bays. Visibility under a mile out there. I also just checked Tobay Beach and it looks like the snow is just offshore.
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Flurries in the air at Ocean Beach.
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There is no snow along the south shore as of now. I just checked webcams in Ocean Beach and East Hampton. From the sky conditions I saw I think if it does reach the south shore it would get to Fire Island first.
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Light snow has reached up to Asbury Park on the north Jersey coast.
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The snow that potentially will fall later in eastern Suffolk will be related more to what is happening on the synoptic scale. Assuming it happens I would agree that there could be ocean enhancement. As of now I like the chances for snow to fall on the island, especially along the south shore.
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Snowing in Point Pleasant, NJ. That would be almost to exit 98 on the GSP.
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I feel bad for you. I looks like it has taken most of the morning for snow just to move NW across the Delaware River to a point a few miles NW of I95. Even there visibility looks to be about a mile.
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This has more to do with what is going on in the mid levels. The wind off the ocean is not currently producing any snow along the north Jersey coast.
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Yeah it has made its way past the airport up to the Girard Point Bridge but not to Center City.
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The farthest north location along the Jersey shore where there is currently snow falling is Seaside Park.
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Dry air in the mid levels looks to keep accumulating snow well south of the city. I just checked traffic cams along I95 in the Philly area- nada. In NJ the line that delineates snow from no snow looks to run roughly along I295 up to route 70 and then east and ENE along route 70 to the shore. The extent of the radar returns north of there indicates the degree of dry air in the mid levels.
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I wish you folks along the south shore and Brooklyn and SI good luck with this one. I think that while 1-2” is possible there I think a car topper is most likely. I think folks on the Jersey shore south of Long Branch and east of Islip on the island stand the best chance of seeing 1-3” with higher amounts further down the Jersey shore.
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Actually the change from the preceding run is about 20-25 miles.
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A lot of us will be smoking cirrus…
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Mt. Holly issues WSW for much of DE and southernmost NJ including Atlantic and Cape May counties for up to 4-6” of snow.
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The mean brings 9” to Cape May.
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On the 18z GEFS two members bring significant snows as far north as NYC while an additional one reaches LI
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Road trip to Cape May tomorrow night?
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FWIW the 12z GEFS had 5 members with good to big hits to the north and west of I95 and 2 members with hits from the city S and E. Another member covered the whole area. I backed out the output from what I believe will be a non event Sunday night for this forum. This is from the Dupage website which shows outputs from 20 members.
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GFS goes from a cutter at 0z to an inland runner at 6z to a DT special at 12z for the end of week potential event. These types of outputs reinforce the argument about how far out these OP runs should go.
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I enjoyed reading his short term AFDs back in those days especially when a Coastal storm was in the offing. It was required reading for me first thing in the morning to read those AM Taunton AFDs.
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I experienced this storm on LI. 30” fell where I was on the north shore of the island. What I remember about it was the number of hours that the visibility was consistently 1/4 mile or less. They had to use payloaders through the duration of the storm to clear the streets . I did not see something like that until 2016 when we had the same amount where I live in eastern PA. Visibility wise that one was not as spectacular however it did the job.
