Tatamy

The wild card in all this is what will come from the data collected on the recon flight today and the 3 additional flights tomorrow. The data from today’s flight is expected to reflect in the 0z model suite.

Yes it is

This would come from 20:1 ratios. Do you really think the ratios go that high?

Wait to tomorrow when they send out 3 planes. 1 out to the Atlantic and 2 out to the PAC. Another day of model gyrations coming up.

18z Euro is 6-12” from the city S and E and 3-6” to the N and W. What is not to like about that?

The Euro was the model that went nuts with this one in recent runs. The other models were further east or going that direction. The NAM went big on this this morning for that one run.

18z RGEM holds serve from the 12z run. Brings a few inches to the Jersey shore and several inches out on LI.

18z ICON still has the storm however it is further east like the rest of the models. Still brings a few inches to coastal areas.

On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow. One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours.

I got two feet a year ago. I knew I was very unlikely to get anything substantive from this one. This was always going to be a coastal event assuming it would happen. I feel sorry for you guys on the coast with this latest turn of events on the models.

Ant - the shortwaves expected to be involved with this system were more completely sampled today. This was noted on this thread earlier. The new data went through the algorithms used by the models. Unfortunately the result of that is what we see.

FWIW the 12z ICON is still a good hit for the area with 5-10” along and S and E of I95

Huge 100+ mile difference in the new GFS run vs the last run of the Euro. One these is going to cave hard.

12z RGEM is slightly east of 6z. Still a good storm for the Jersey shore and out on LI.

You do realize that the NAM is not yet in its range - right? You want to start placing more weight on the NAM solutions on Friday.

Exactly.

If anything close to this were to happen or if the media starts throwing around the numbers we just saw I would not want to even consider the lines that will be forming at the grocery stores near you. The pre-existing supply chain issues would be an additional complication.

It’s on the high end of potential solutions. We will just have to watch future runs of this and the other models.

06z Euro is 18-24 “ in the metro at 10:1 ratios at 90 hours.

Next up 06z Euro at 7am.

If you’re near I95 it is too early to rule out anything. It’s the well north and west guys like myself who will likely get very little if anything from this one.

Two things to look for in today’s model runs will be better sampling of the shortwaves involved (looks to be already happening) and the dataset obtained from the scheduled recon out in the PAC. That data is expected to make it into the 0z runs tonight according to the NHC website.

Models are actually honing in on a solution. It’s good that we are starting to see a consensus of sorts shaping up. There is still time for all this to change. Based upon what I have been seeing on 500mb charts I really am not seeing a pathway for the higher amounts to come further inland. It kind of reminds me of the huge I287 gradient that set up with Boxing Day in 2010.

With this morning’s runs this event is shaping up to be significant south and east of the Driscoll Bridge on the Jersey shore and S&E of I95 elsewhere. It’s the reverse of what we see many times however this go around it appears to be the coastal areas turn for snow. Nearby inland suburbs get much less with a big time gradient setting up for snow amounts very close to the city. Places well to the north and west look to smoke cirrus. I would consider the Euro to be an outlier at this time with higher amounts to the north and west as compared to the other models.

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