A look at the surface winds during the course of this storm as shown on these models paints a revealing picture of why LI and most of NYC is mainly rain while the rain / snow line is right near the CT coast. As the event begins those surface winds are mainly from the east. That locks in the slightly milder air mass coming in from off the warm ocean. With time those winds do back around to north- northeast and north and increase. Only then can the BL cool enough in order for snow flakes to reach the surface. By then the heaviest precipitation has moved to the east. The only way this gets done sooner is if precipitation falls at much heavier rates. I saw this happen many times when I lived out on the island. For the sake of those of you out on the island hopefully this event evolves differently.