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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    Precip in the form of snow and sleet now starting to break out in the Reading area of PA and areas south of there.
  2. Tatamy
    The model is seeing strong lift in the atmosphere which is producing heavier precip. This in turn is bringing colder air down from aloft and changing the precip to snow.
  3. Tatamy
    What you see near Scranton is the same orographic effect that you see in the Hudson River valley. The easterly flow near the surface experiences downsloping as it descends from the mountainous terrain to the east of these locations. This has the effect of drying out the atmosphere. The terrain just east of Scranton is up to 2000’ above MSL while the city itself is in a much lower valley location.
  4. Tatamy
    I am sticking with my thoughts from earlier. Lower elevations primarily get 1-3”. Most places south of I84 will be mainly rain tomorrow night.
  5. Tatamy
    That’s the one. We did get rained on however we had a tremendous wind storm after the passage of the frontal trough. If an analysis was done of the pressure fields associated with this event I believe that the conclusion would be that the winds were caused by a sting jet.
  6. Tatamy
    Overnight models continue with the theme of the significant snows being north and west of I287 and I80 and west of the Hudson River. Snow during the day Thursday mixes with other forms of frozen/freezing precip at night. I am thinking 3-6” with higher amounts up towards the Catskills. GFS with its consistent theme of higher snow amounts between I78 and I80 is an outlier solution.
  7. Tatamy
    0z NAM continues to be toasty at the mid levels. You need to be in the Catskills to see meaningful snow accumulations on this run.
  8. Tatamy
    The 12z runs are coming into good agreement on a paste job for interior sections particularly to the north and west of I80 and I287. I think 6-10” for elevations over 800-1000’ are possible. Places to the east of the Hudson River get less. Areas in NJ between I78 and I80 are definitely in the hunt with this one (lesser accumulations). This will be a front end thump and many of these areas can ultimately go over to rain before it wraps up.
  9. Tatamy
    12z NAM takes a big step towards joining the GFS/GGEM camp with higher snow totals to the N&W of I287 and I80. Colder run this cycle.
  10. Tatamy
    Euro is very close at the mid levels at least to joining the GFS GGEM camp. Note the slight bump to the east at 06z on the track of SLP.
  11. Tatamy
    The areas most likely to see significant snow from this event continues to be those to the north and west of I80 and I287. The GFS and CMC would add areas to the north of I78 as well. I would place more weight on the NAM solutions starting from tomorrow.
  12. Tatamy
    18z GFS has QPF totals of 1.5”+ for northern NJ, SE NY, and eastern and north eastern PA. Even at 8:1 ratios that means 12”+ for these areas with more at higher elevations.
  13. Tatamy
    18z RDPS and the 18z GFS have the makings of a paste bomb for interior northern NJ and adjacent PA.
  14. Tatamy
    Can someone pin the 12/15 - 12/16 thread?
  15. Tatamy
    Thread is now created.
  16. Tatamy
    Depends on your choice of model. The GFS would be over 12” of snow. The CMC would be 4-8” of snow going over to an extended period of sleet. The Euro is still quite warm and would be mostly rain after some frozen/ freezing precip to start. FWIW the NAM which usually leads the way with mid level warming was going cold with this one on the 12z run (at least initially).
  17. Tatamy
    12z CMC would be a big sleet producer. If you went with a 2:1 ratio this run would produce 1-2” of sleet on top of a few inches of snow in the interior.
  18. Tatamy
    Look at the overnight models. How many of them are showing significant snows on the coast? The primary is torching the mid levels. The Euro / CMC are very strongly in that camp. The GFS looks to be colder than the GEFS and is on its own with snows closer in to the city. The ensembles are showing this as being a latitude based event. There will be other events this month and maybe one of them will deliver snow for the coast.
  19. Tatamy
    For the end of the week I would be giving greater weight to models showing a system that gives more of a freezing/frozen precip event to the interior areas. I think the GFS is on its own and is too cold in the mid levels. I agree with Walt’s idea that this is mainly an I84 and north event.
  20. Tatamy
    12z UKMET was colder for upstate NY and interior NE.
  21. Tatamy
    12z GFS has another snow event for interior locations. The 12z CMC with warming depicted between 700-800mb and a cold layer below would result in up to 10-12 hours of sleet/ice. It then goes to rain. This could result in sleet accumulations of up to 1-2”. This could have very nasty implications for travel later in the week in the interior.
  22. Tatamy
    Some of the short range guidance has bumped up snowfall amounts in parts of NW NJ and LI as of late. This is the 14z HRRR
  23. Tatamy
    Not a lot going on generally between Harrisburg and Allentown as of now. Those places that had a coating earlier have mostly melted off. In the high country on I81 to the NE of Harrisburg just a coating with freezing drizzle as well. Even on I81 just a coating at the rest stop north of Hazleton.
  24. Tatamy
    Snow depth off of the 12K NAM
  25. Tatamy
    This ties into the analysis on the 3K just posted by Bluewave.
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