Tatamy

I remember that the HRRR had it but was not sure of the others. Thanks.

Which ones?

Looks like it missed the I78 deathband.

The concern from Mt. Holly about mixing primarily relates to their southern NJ, SE PA, and Delaware zones. For the remainder of their CWA the snowfall amounts will be related to the evolution of the IVT. As shown on numerous model runs it looks like the primary impacts from the IVT look to be from NYC on west. As for the coastal depending on your model of choice most of its impacts will be east of the city and perhaps well east at that. FWIW some of the models that show the coastal closer to the coast also have rain for a time in the coastal areas. Many moving parts here.

This is this morning's AFD from Mt. Holly for the Friday through Saturday night period: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A deepening upper trough will be approaching the area to close the week, which will be accompanied with several shortwaves embedded in the flow. At the surface, low pressure originating over the High Plains will traverse across the southern Great Lakes region and approach our region by Friday afternoon. Forecast guidance has trended a little deeper with the primary shortwave, so as the low approaches, some precipitation is expected to develop and overspread the area through the day Friday. At the same time, a secondary low will be developing a couple hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast and deepen rapidly as it lifts northeast; enhanced by speed max rounding base of the upper trough. With the low offshore remaining in `close enough` proximity to the area, it is likely that there will be some areas of mainly light rain and snow across the area on Friday into Friday night as the initial low transitions its energy to the offshore low. In addition, some forecast guidance indicates the development of an inverted / Norlun trough set-up on the northwest side of the offshore low. This would enhance precipitation across portions of the area, however, it is still uncertain where or if this feature is to even develop at this time. For now, the best chance of observing accumulating snow will be across the Lehigh Valley, northern New Jersey and in the Poconos where temperatures will be cooler through the duration of the event. Current forecast snow totals in these areas are for between 1-2", locally up to 3". Light accumulations of a dusting up to 1" are possible across the remainder of New Jersey, Pennsylvania and northern Delaware as rain transitions to snow on Friday night as temperatures cool below/near freezing. It should be noted though that these type of inverted trough setups are notoriously difficult to forecast as they can sometimes have localized heavier precipitation amounts. If this occurs, some areas could "over perform" and see snowfall amounts as high as 4 or 5 inches. Best chances for this would be central into NW NJ, NE PA. Precipitation will taper off from west to east by early Saturday morning as the low exits toward Nova Scotia. The remainder of the day Saturday will be blustery and cold with highs ranging from the 20s to low 30s north with mid to high 30s for highs near and south/east of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures are expected to the fall into the teens Saturday night an Arctic airmass begins to take hold across the region.

It was mainly alone on the 0z run however now with the 06z run it is getting some support from the 3k NAM. It’s kind of a long shot but let’s see what the rest of the models do as we go through the day.

You do realize that the NAM is literally an ocean apart from all the other guidance. Good luck with the remaining runs from the 0z suite.

Thank you for finding and posting this. Very unique system in terms of how it evolved. The gradient on that was something straight out of a lake effect band.

It’s been there for a few days.

Wise move on your part. I don’t think people on this board want to go down the same path as what is going on in the New England forum with the potential system for the end of the week.

We had the same type of gradient out here with that event. There was some type of convergence zone with this system. The band of heavy snow with this was only about 15-25 miles wide. It was visible on radar out in Ohio the day before. Interesting synoptic setup with that one.

The 2/16 event was also known as the I-78 death band. I took these pictures the morning after. The one with the highway interchange in it was at a car dealership on the north side of Hellertown, PA. About 5-6” fell there. The other one was at a car dealership on the south side. 10” fell there. Crazy stuff

Icon is an outlier. Go with a blend of the other models knowing that this is an IVT and will probably leave a lot of people disappointed.

What you are seeing are the globals trying to position an IVT from several days out. I would be very cautious with this setup.

In the first 8 decades on the list there are 37 winter seasons with seasonal totals of 30” or more. In the last 8 decades there are 22. And yes the remaining winter seasons of this decade could add another 6 to that total if everything goes just right. It’s true that there other ways to analyze this. However even if we are lucky enough to get 2 or 3 30” winters in the remaining years of this decade there is still a big difference in the numbers.

Listed below is a summary of winters by decade that had 30” or more of snow in Central Park. This is from the NWS website. The numbers speak for themselves. Seasonal snow totals are declining with global warming. A lot of people were spoiled by the number of large storms that occurred in the first two decades of this century. Unfortunately these storms and the resulting higher snow totals were not representative of the longer term seasonal norms for this region. It’s a bitter pill for snow lovers to swallow however this is climatology. 1870s - 5 1880s - 7 1890s - 5 1900s - 4 1910s - 5 1920s - 2 1930s - 4 1940s - 5 1950s - 2 1960s - 4 1970s - 1 1980s - 0 1990s - 2 2000s - 6 2010s - 6 2020s - 1

Have 0.3” of mainly sleet and ice OTG.

Mix of Snow/sleet. 33F

Have the same happening here.

Huge changes run to run. They are really struggling with this pattern.

Currently 12F here

I was going to ask what you did to that model… lol

Storm total for this event 1.80”. Cold air arriving here with the temp down to 38.

Winds are starting to crank here as the cold front slowly approaches. Recent wind gust to 29 mph and I am well inland. Winds will really start to crank along the coast soon.