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Tatamy

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  1. Tatamy
    Do you know what variables are used to calculate this?
  2. Tatamy
    There is no law in the annals of physics that states that snow has to fall at a ratio of 10:1. There seems to be a lot of people who believe that it does however that is not the case.
  3. Tatamy
    I-84
  4. Tatamy
    06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system. Of more interest is the system for the 10th. Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm. The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain. This evolution has been quite interesting to watch. Coastal areas are all rain with this one.
  5. Tatamy
    I don’t even want to think about what must be going on in the NE forum tonight.
  6. Tatamy
    The other take away here is how the increased confluence is creating a stronger downslope flow in the LHV and the CT River which greatly reduces accumulations up there.
  7. Tatamy
    You really did… lol
  8. Tatamy
    I think the models have been reasonably consistent so far with this event.
  9. Tatamy
    19z BOM goes with 7-9” across eastern/NE PA, western/NW NJ, SE NY, and interior CT.
  10. Tatamy
    Kuchie actually looked pretty good.
  11. Tatamy
    It was not bad if you are inland. The axis of heaviest snow would be from northern NJ across SE NY to interior CT. The ensemble mean in this area calls for 6-7”
  12. Tatamy
    Good post. Regarding the follow up apparently no one here has looked at what the CMC OP does with it… lol
  13. Tatamy
    The run that you show for today at 12z does not show the full duration of the event so this is misleading. The axis of heaviest snows has shifted to the northwest and with this run is over NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY. Those areas see between 5 - 6” with the event with lesser amounts to the south and east.
  14. Tatamy
    You should hold those thoughts until the S/W is more fully analyzed by the North American RAOB network and the short range models can parse this.
  15. Tatamy
    That will be dependent on snowfall rates. Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event. These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.
  16. Tatamy
    Rates do matter however the precip type is ultimately dependent on temperatures aloft.
  17. Tatamy
    It’s not based upon the elevation. It’s based upon the urban heat island effect. There can be snow with the event anywhere in the city however how much of it sticks is very dependent on surface temperatures. You then have to incorporate temperatures up in the atmosphere to this equation. Many models are calling for mixing or even a change to rain. Throw in the presence of a warm ocean and the nearby LI Sound. Many parts that play into this scenario.
  18. Tatamy
    Your point is well taken. I was speaking in general terms. Make no mistake that if even if half of that accumulates on city streets and sidewalks that would be a lot. The fact that much of this falls at night will help. I used to work in the city on the west side and recall a number of times where snow was falling at the roof top level (six stories up) and was falling as rain at street level. It really does take a significant cold air mass to get accumulations especially in Manhattan.
  19. Tatamy
    The 06z GEFS mean for the city is 6.8”
  20. Tatamy
    The precip that you refer to will likely be quite light as the event winds down. In any case whatever snow does fall looks to get completely washed away with the incoming rain storm later Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.
  21. Tatamy
    0z GEFS mean is for 6-8” for all areas from I95 and to the north and west. Two things stand out on the past 4 runs or so and that is the axis of heaviest snowfall is quite consistent in its placement. The other is the amounts on the mean have been gradually increasing.
  22. Tatamy
    It’s actually a better run for much of NW NJ and SE NY than the 12z run.
  23. Tatamy
    01z NWS BOM has 6-12” to the north and west of I95 with lesser amounts to the coast.
  24. Tatamy
    18z EPS mean targets NW NJ, SE NY, and NE PA with about 6” generally. Lesser amounts down to the coast.
  25. Tatamy
    It’s been years since I last watched that channel. My service does not even offer it.
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