Tatamy

Light snow with visibility of one mile. 31/26

Very light snow has gotten underway here. 33/22.

One of the unusual features of how this event moves in is it is accompanied by low hanging virga as it moistens up the BL. I have been seeing this feature on traffic cameras all night long going all the way back to central PA and I am seeing it here now.

Snow has almost reached the Allentown area. Already snowing in Reading.

Snowing in the Harrisburg area. Looks like visibility’s come down fairly quickly with the onset of precip.

One of the interesting aspects of this incoming event that I am seeing on this evening’s model runs (particularly the short term models) is the positioning of the band of frontogenetic forcing. It is being progged to set up across east central PA and north central NJ and directly across the city. The band looks to be about 30 or so miles wide and will set up along or near I78. If this is what actually happens then those areas that are under this band will see 3-4” or more while other areas to the north or south get 1-2” or so. We will see if the 0z model runs continue depicting this feature. This feature has already been spoken of by others on this thread.

Less QPF (precipitation) with the system.

Snow has reached as far east as the Johnstown, PA area.

I would agree that 2-4” looks good for central and northern NJ and parts of the city with locally higher amounts possible in areas that get into banding. Many areas further west out into PA could see up to 4-8” with the banding that is expected to set up out there.

I can report the same has occurred here. It goes down as a trace.

I think closer to 4 would do it for Southern SI. 5 would be a difficult reach IMO.

The flow as modeled is offshore so no help from that direction for places on the island.

The trend in the models with the 12z runs is that the greater amounts will be mainly to the south and west of the city.

06z Euro also bumps slightly north.

Just a few very light flurries at my location with this activity.

Liberty - that is not a correct statement. That figure is more commonly used as a point of reference to relate the amount of QPF progged to expected snow amounts. In coastal areas (and inland too) the ratio can range from 5:1 in warmer storms with BL issues to 10:1 in slightly colder storms. 15:1 ratios can occur with colder storms accompanied by optimal conditions aloft.

The modeled BL temps made it quite clear this event would not be accumulating in the concrete jungles of Manhattan. Many areas in the outer boroughs did do okay with this one.

All done here - 9.1”

Maybe he is slumming around on X looking for content to cut and paste into here to further his narrative.

Heavy snow 1/4 mile visibility. 31/30. Storm total now up to 6.5”

Heavy Snow 1/8 mile visibility. Storm total 4” so far however it’s been pounding here for the past half hour or so.

Moderate snow. 31/30. 2” new OTG.

Moderate snow 33/31. Ground is already coated. Silver dollars pouring down. This is going to be some wild morning out here.

A lot more than the Euro.

Unless you have temps into the mid 20s (which are not expected with this event) streets and sidewalks in Manhattan are likely to be mainly just wet. Neighborhoods in the outer boroughs can get accumulations in this setup however that will be highly dependent on what the specific surface is, if it’s normally shaded during the day, and if it accumulates water on it.