Cheeznado
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Everything posted by Cheeznado
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The "traditional" hurricane models are sure saying that Dorian stays well offshore even in NC, and with still no west component evident on sat or radar, I have a feeling that this will verify. There has been a clear west bias with synoptic models and the HWRF all along. One thing is for certain IMO is that FL and GA are in the clear mostly, the hurricane watches/warnings there are overdone and should be cancelled.
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According to the Recon the pressure went up about 20mb during the ERC. Also, the new Euro is a tad farther southeast offshore the Carolinas.
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12Z GFS is a tad faster but otherwise very similar to the 06Z run.
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On a side note, what the heck is wrong with the recon planes? Looks like at least two had to abort, no fixes now for quite a while...C'mon AF, get your sh%it together...
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New GFS has shifted right a bit off FL but then it still hits NC, but much weaker.
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Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island. https://twitter.com/iCyclone
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The Euro has no US landfall.
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Euro misses FL altogether LOL.
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12Z GFS big time right shift....
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FWIW the latest HWRF has it up to almost a cat 5....
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Euro second landfall FL panhandle Thursday.
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It was never about the first wave, the only hope we had was for a second short wave digging in behind the lead low acting on the cold air left behind. The models are now pretty much unanimous in having no secondary wave at all, thus no snow.
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This pattern bites since any significant snow is probably off the table, now that a lot of the flowers and buds have come out here if we get down to 20 or below Tues-Wed that will cause some damage.
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Still about half of the EPS members show some snow in the ATL area, GEFS a bit more than half. I do think there will be a gulf wave along about Mar 4-5, question is how strong and of course where any snow bands might set up.
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The last few runs of the GEFS have had about half of the members with snow in north GA at about 240, 1/3 of the EPS have small amounts. So it is on my radar barely but given how lousy this winter has been so far not optimistic- still just basically waiting for more thunderstorms.
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This forum should be renamed American Winter Weather- it is amazing how posts dry up almost completely once the threat of snow/ice is over. I love snow as much as the next person but am interested in all types of weather....
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I disagree, GEFS, EPS have been very consistent with at least 5" for the whole event. Would be extremely surprised if ATL only got an inch. .
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Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....
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Looks like a better chance of thunderstorms and even some severe weather in the south next week than snow......
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Based on a pretty unified EPS and GEFS consensus of a western trough and SE ridge after this week, and given the fact that since 1930 there have only been five 1" or greater snow events in Atlanta past Feb 15, I am close to saying wait till next year here for snow after the Tues. event.
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Hey, this is no longer long term, am going to start a separate thread for the post-frontal snow.
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So, the Tuesday event is now within NAM range- time for a separate thread? Not really long range any more......
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Er.....No. Not even close.
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This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong.
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Almost no ensemble support for this- pattern is too progressive. Not optimistic after the Tues event.
