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Cheeznado

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Everything posted by Cheeznado

  1. Cheeznado
    Well, there is one GEFS member that has a foot...I agree that the overall pattern might favor some sort of snow event, just do not want to get too excited just yet.
  2. Cheeznado
    No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.
  3. Cheeznado
    The 3" of snow this AM was neat, but now the downside- there was .3 or so of ZR afterwards, so recently lost power. 887 separate outages in GA so not expecting it to be restored anytime soon.
  4. Cheeznado
    As someone already posted what a massive NAM fail! The GFS and AI Euro did the best here. the ensembles were also very steady on us getting at least an inch, I am just over 2" as the changeover is happening.
  5. Cheeznado
    Now all sleet.
  6. Cheeznado
    Heavy snow here, approaching 3"
  7. Cheeznado
    Newer runs of the HRRR trending colder with a weaker farther south surface low.
  8. Cheeznado
    0Z HRRR trending warmer, surface low farther north. Not good. EDIT: still gives us 2" of snow/sleet however, Evap cooling doing its work (I hope).
  9. Cheeznado
    GFS colder with more snow here than the NAM, although it still shows a lot of mix.
  10. Cheeznado
    You may be right but still hoping for at least 2" of snow before the changeover.
  11. Cheeznado
    Looked at a NAM sounding near me, not much of a warm nose showing up really so the algorithm may be too icy.
  12. Cheeznado
    Not liking the the new NAM very much. Almost an inch of ZR- yuck. Hope it is bit too warm and maybe we will get more sleet because of evap cooling.
  13. Cheeznado
    All except a very few ensemble members, both EPS and GEFS have accumulating snow here in Atlanta, consensus is 2-4".
  14. Cheeznado
    Sorry, but this would not be just "decent" for us, it is a dream run which would be the most snow here in quite a few years.
  15. Cheeznado
    Actually this run is better here in GA, the less phased/amped trough keeps the ZR lower, snow line further south.
  16. Cheeznado
    Big changes in the 12Z NAM, Texas and AR folks will not be happy at all, northern stream much stronger, a lot less precip on the northern edge.
  17. Cheeznado
    All frozen here now seems to be almost certain, just hope it stays all or mostly snow and sleet. We have to hope the snow cover up north and evap cooling will help accomplish that. 2-4" of snow mainly north of the Perimiter followed by sleet seems like a reasonable guess.
  18. Cheeznado
    I think that this model does not show ZR/IP
  19. Cheeznado
    The shearing out is a given. The new ICON phases in NM/TX then shears out later. We have to hope for the first closed low to shear out without phasing with the next digging short wave.
  20. Cheeznado
    That was always going to be the case.
  21. Cheeznado
    Models still fluctuating, 12Z GFS utterly different from 06Z with no phase. When you have these wild swings it means we are still in who knows land. I hope once the short wave comes in from the Pacific we will have more clarity, for now just wait and see.
  22. Cheeznado
    Still unlikely that we get a big snow storm here, but the chances for at least over .5 have increased as now the majority of the EPS and GEFS members show at least something. That is a change for the better. We have to root against a strong phase, a sheared out system is a lot better. I have a friend we can stay with up father north if it is a near miss here.
  23. Cheeznado
    Euro much slower with the closed low. Bottom line is that until the short wave that becomes the low actually comes into the US, is it a fruitless exercise to breathlessly post all the different models' solutions which will continue to fluctuate.
  24. Cheeznado
    The models are still vacillating wildly, this still a week out but at least for GA, very few if any ensemble members show a "big dog:" snow any more. Also, the idea of super cold air is also fading fast. Color me very skeptical.
  25. Cheeznado
    It would be very ironic if there is a big dog after the Euro hyped people up a week ago and everyone trashed some for starting up the chatter online. Not saying I believe this certainly but getting more confident we we will at least see some accumulation her in north GA
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