Cheeznado
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Everything posted by Cheeznado
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New GFS only marginally better, still has the only significant snow in LA and TX.
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FWIW the 48 hr HRRR in TX
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IMO it is irresponsible for local TV mets to show forecasted snow amounts this far in the future down to the tenth of an inch.
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06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,
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It's just slower. It actually trended better if you go out into Thu AM
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GEFS has gotten worse than the previous run with the first wave, similar with second.
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This type of massive differences between models and between various runs of one model tells me we still do not have a remote clue what will happen. It's all for entertainment value only right now, and probably for a few days more.
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The fact that the GEFS actually got a bit better means we can probably throw out this Op run.
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The GFS continues to swing wildly, I hope that is a sign it is OTL. If not, we are all screwed.
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The GEFS is the only model that went the wrong direction , now only 6 runs with any substantial snows here, and well less than half have any snow. Let's hope it is an outlier.
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Th GFS much slower and farther north.
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CLT is very similar to ATL.
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A few more dry runs than ATL, (or specifically PDK).
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I checked a number of stations in NC and SC, all have ~50% with over .5" of snow, but more big hits than ATL.
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EPS members similar to the GEFS, aprrox half have no snow or little snow, there are 14 members with> 4" here.
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Still about half of the GEFS members are dry. A lot of spread still. As with the last system we will have to wait until the short wave topping the ridge comes into the more data dense regions.
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Correct. Here are the actual totals:
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There was a storm back in the 80s or maybe early 90's here where there was supposed to be a huge ice storm, and we got 3" or so of sleet
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EPS more suppressed.
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I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies. It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.
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Ensemble trends going the wrong direction, the fat lady is warming up...
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GEFS slight trend to less snow, mainly based on one run, the rest are dry.
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12Z GFS does have southern snow- 16" in Myrtle Beach, 1.5" here. These details will change of course, the main thing is we need to see if the ensembles begin to have more members support another snow event.
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00Z EPS members, only out of 50 show any really big snow. About 50% show a trace to a few inches. 06Z GEFS is actually a bit more bullish with 3 members showing 6"+, like the EPS it has half dry, half with some snow. At this range looking at the ensembles is the only way to go, op models are useless.
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Slightly less than half of the EPS members have some snow here, 3 are over 6".
