powderfreak

None of it is solely human generated. The P&C is human augmented as OceanWx has said plenty of times...they can raise or lower the temps, sky, POPS, QPF etc but it's still getting spit out as a gridpoint. The Zone Forecast isn't entirely human generated either... no one is sitting there typing that out for each and every zone for every 12 hours. The zone forecast averages the grid points in the zone and smooths it out to make it easier to digest. Like a wind speed of 8mph in the grids might yield a P&C of 7-11mph, while the Zone interprets it as 5-10mph. But like I know in my zone, it's averaging temperatures from high elevations and the valley because my County has huge terrain changes. The mean ends up having high temps a bit lower than what I see, and lows are a bit warmer (i.e. the mean of Valley and mountains has a lower diurnal change than the valley sees). All of the forecasts have human input but none of them are solely just a forecaster sitting there typing it out for every county in their area.

Why is the NWS forecast "obviously risky" to follow? What forecast offers less "risk"?

It's not even forecasting, but pretty much straight wishcasting. If it's warmer than normal in the warm season, the KFS will do well. Likewise if the pattern is colder and snowier in winter, the verification will be high. Now if the actual weather doesn't fit the KFS weather preferences, the model will perform very poorly.

New Jersey woman died of hypothermia yesterday on MWN.... a wind chill of 12F in June. At the time of the incident, the summit was reporting 30/30 and freezing rain. http://northeastexplorer.com/wordpress/mount-washington-hiker-suffering-from-hypothermia-dies/

lol they are all saved in the archive. Getting pumped and saying 90F coming, followed by tweets from "Fish". The heat will come but it has gotten beaten down handily whenever it showed up on the day 7-10 guidance this spring.

Yeah I'd agree with that. Tomorrow has the ULL and trough axis swinging through the mountains...might be a bit better in Burlington but still showery, probably a more consistent light rain in the mountains with westerly flow. Saturday looks best and warmest with boundary coming in from NW but late evening to night. Sunday could go either way, that boundary is nearby and may sink just far enough south to put the moisture in CNE...or it'll be over us and it's a wet day.

I think our high so far is 59F and starting to cool off with rain starting. We've already had one June day with a high under 60F, maybe we can grab another? Down to 53F now.

All I can picture is in mid-winter when you are trying your hardest to get CT included in the snow (its heavy snow all the way to the river, the EMass guys just don't say it)....now it seems like any attempt to talk rain in CT is downplayed .

Ah I thought I saw some good 1"+ in NE CT too like Putnam, Killingly, Woodstock. I'll have to double check.

Didn't the heart of CT have like .75-1.50" like a day or two ago? Cocorahs has Hartford County as seeing .68-1.40" of rain for the past 48 hours.

High of 75F off a low of 41F.... just crushing the Chamber days lately. June so far at -2.6... average high/low of 72/42, just perfect temp spread.

Ended up being pretty nice. It was a fall-like day but the daylight length really has a mid-summer feel regardless of temperature. A decent sunset is just beginning with the broken lower level clouds, but this was earlier today while walking the dog.

Yeah here was my comparison of the stake in mid-winter depth and currently...I had sent them this and gave a report of the snow around the stake and I thought a trace amount would be the right call (which they already made that call too) due to no snow around/in front of the actual stake but then other areas with 1-2 foot deep patches. It is crazy how hard it is to melt that snow up there at 4,000ft. The Cliff Trail hiking trail from the top of the Gondola also has quite a bit of snow on it still, all the nooks and crannies filled in and packed hard from a windy, wet winter.

Today was surprisingly cold, almost more than I'd like. Almost chilly at 62F with NW wind, down off an 8am high of 65F. Impressive to have drying and some clearing this time of year with no diurnal rise in temps. Those days of 82/38 style stuff was the best.

Haha you do generate the most conversation on here of any poster, and it's been like that for years so you obviously are doing something right. There's likely a good linear relationship to the number of responses you get and how far up the bullshit scale it is.... if no one responds, it's likely a very reasonable post, ha. The further out in fantasy land the post is, the more responses.

We need the rain. Averaging 2" per week hasn't been enough. The saunas float away weekly.

Ha, and take the Met who thinks it might get hot and run with it. A couple weeks ago it was Fisher who had the best ideas when he said 90F...then Gibbs...today Scooter.

Another healthy 3/4ths of an inch last night. Just a lot of soakers over the past month.

Hit 83F up here today. Perfect with the low dews.

Hotter up here...already 81/50 at 11:50am. Dry heat but has that feel of another big diurnal range after lows in the 40s.

I hadn't been paying attention to the forecast highs but this week looks pretty cool if the NWS forecast is any indication. Low 80s today, then mid-60s for highs tomorrow. Low 70s on Wednesday but then mid-60s for highs Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun. Given the rainfall though, I'd assume those 65F highs will come with at least some humidity.

Perfect day. The Green Mountains are finally green.

Too much anger for such a beautiful day. 81/40 this afternoon after a low of 39F....Big diurnal spread.

Even June has started cold up this way...as we are currently almost -4F through the first 8 days of the month up this way. Makes sense I guess when 4 days of June never got out of the 60s and one of those days was a 59/41, which is some decent neggies for June. Heck, St Johnsbury's 1V4 ASOS there in NE VT is -5.2 so far for June.

I wouldn't read into that too much... in December when folks say the days get longer in two weeks, it's not some subliminal message for "lets end this winter and get on with spring". Regarding the spring temperatures... there was a pretty good gradient across New England, cooler departures north and more normal temperatures the furthest south in New England. It's weird that ORH at elevation was so much cooler relative to normal than say BDL, but maybe it's a latitude thing. Up north here, we put up -2.8F for May with over 8" of rainfall...so the "cold and wet" mantra certainly seems spot on when averaging .25-0.3" of rain per day at steady negative departures. For MET Spring we did -3.5/-0.4/-2.8 for the monthlies, averaging -2.2 for the spring. Solidly below average. Looks like by and large, it's a pretty good split from NNE to SNE in terms of spring departures....with SNE the buffer zone between the absolute bake-off happening in the mid-Atlantic and the chill that never left NNE into Quebec.