powderfreak

So yeah, looks like BTV did 90+ a total of 14 times last July/August... this year it’s been 6 times (all in July) and it’s been low 90s when they’ve come. Last summer was legit heat up north with 93/95/94/97 type stuff at the airport and even into Montreal area.

Yeah, and Tamarack not hitting 80F yet in August still blows my mind from earlier. The warm fronts just haven't been able to penetrate far enough north and then stay there for us to bake I guess. Many days there have been big dew point gradients too across CNE. Some summers though it seems like it's just a SW flow furnace right through Montreal and Quebec...like the max 850s almost go up and above New England when there's a monster eastern ridge. Even going back to this winter, it's had this gradient nearby where it seems any ridging that tries to establish itself just gets beaten down from the north. Last summer it seemed like BTV popped 90-95 like candy, but like Brian and I were talking about, for that site to only be +1.5 in August it certainly hasn’t been hot. Edit: Last August was +5.7 at BTV .

I could see that during the second half of next week. I'd go 2-3 days as Thur/Fri/Sat probably gets 65F as it looks now. Mon/Tue definitely take under 65F during the afternoon, likely Wednesday too. But late week I wouldn't as the flow goes back southerly/southwesterly.

BDL/ORH. Throw it down. What does "south of the Pike mean"... pick a spot and I'll amend if you want to do Davis dews.

Dews on Monday for ORH/BDL.... above 65F or below during the time when people are awake and outdoors? I'll take the under. Say 55-60F dews at ORH/BDL on Monday when folks are out and about.

What are your thoughts for dews at BDL/ORH next week? Honest answer for posterity. Can't play the semantics game if you lay down some numbers at your two closest climo sites.

Mt Mansfield today says, "I have no idea what you are talking about." LOL, like a dark UFO sitting over the Spine all day with sun to the west and east. Orographic lift doesn't discriminate between seasons. Air is always rising.

Yeah it will be funny when those new normals kick in and really add in the last 10-15 years of records. For BTV to be below normal right now, the rest of the VT ASOS stations have to run like -3 or -4 at the least (and the MVL/MPV/1V4 departures are normally very close to each other). Hopefully the new normals at least get the BTV departures in line with the rest of the North Country.

Ha, that's hilarious. Going the first three weeks of August and failing to hit even 80F... impressive.

There’s the line, ha. Even BTV is only +1.5 or so and they run a baseline +2 to +3 it seems until the new normals kick in.

Yeah I feel like it’s between you and CON/MHT where the torch gradient has set up this summer. We we’re still a bit below normal as of last night for August.

This summer has had a remarkable ability to kill heat north of like GFL-CON. A lot of recent summers we’ve torched along with SNE, or even more so with over-the-top type heat into southern Quebec.... but this year it’s like a different planet.

Tomorrow we COC: Surface cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley will follow this evening, and generally move through with just a westerly wind shift. The thermal gradient is rather weak in the sfc-850mb layer. However, upstream 2-M dewpoints are in the 40s to lower 50s across southeastern Ontario, and this will be our air mass for tomorrow.

Highs were supposed to be mid/upper 80s a couple days ago. High of 82F so far. Even BTV only 83F so far and they looked to have a shot at 90F (this morning’s forecast was for 88F), plus they are usually closer to SNE temps. Definitely under-performing by at least 5F across the board up here with 70s and low 80s.

81/64 Is this all the massive torch has for heat?!

Yeah should get low to mid 80s today, we summer.

77/67 off a low of 63F. Good breeze out there right now.

Awesome evening in the backyard swimming hole, as our place is over in the trees on the left. Pretty lucky to have this natural setting just a 2 minute walk from the back door. The river is pretty low right now but the swimming hole is still 6 feet deep and about the size of a backyard swimming pool. Built a seating area for camp fires and a little dam that expanded the pool a bit. First time Mt Mansfield or town gets 2-3" of rain though the whole area will turn into a murky torrent and the bench will be long gone.

@Typhoon Tip my post had literally nothing to do with your thoughts. I hadn’t even read your posts to be honest, I just briefly saw something from Ray about larger events occurring recently, and chimed in. I should’ve read the whole long winded exchange in here but honestly it wasn’t directed at anyone or meant to “railroad” you. Just left it there.

Yeah high of 81F up here so far. 81/64. Standard summer fare. I was looking at the model temps though, the next few days it just has low 80s up here while SNE bakes. Like Monday night the NAM had mid 50s while it was 70+ in SNE for overnight mins too.

And it’s been widespread too...even back to ALB and BTV in the interior have had a large proportion of their biggest snowfalls ever since 2000. And they have large POR. And not only that, both ALB and BTV have had seasons with multiple top 15 storms in them. Even with measuring differences between now and ages ago, to get 10 of 20 highest snowfalls in the past 18 winters at BTV is remarkable when the POR goes back to 1800s. Even some big QPF events too, like Valentines Day 2007 was BTV’s largest February frozen SWE.

Why the hell would FHM be used in this discussion? Is that serious?

Kids don’t want to walk to a waterfall or something on these days? Age matters but man exploring a stream as a young kid... moving water, clear, not like the stuff at home, I loved that stuff

Summer melt? Ha, I bet the beach is much easier with kids when its sunny and hot, vs a NNE low cloud type of day when everyone is trying to figure out what to do.

Solid line of lightning.