powderfreak

It’ll be in the 70s at 6z on Sunday night? Noted. I just said the model has you in the 70s Sunday afternoon before something slips in your backdoor. Sunday night looks raw with NE flow chill. The evolution doesn’t look completely off-base.

That’s one helluva backdoor front on the GFS. Has NE CT at 72F at 18z on Sunday, then NE flow brings 55F by 00z and 47F by 6z. Some raw chill late Sunday into Monday morning...that’s no rad cooling, just raw NE flow.

Nasty cell in Mohawk Valley. They get a decent amount of TORs there by Northeast standards.

An old favorite... “you wished for it, you made it happen.”

I know Tippy has been on it but the mins seem to drive the above normal departures more often than not. It’s gotta get pretty hot to get sustained afternoon temps decently above normal maxes.

Lots of lightning out there around the region today. Some boomers en route.

I just start cutting up reindeer sweaters like Chris Sale cuts jerseys.

High of 81F, total sun, low dews. 63F now, as we’ve almost lost 20F since the sun started to drop behind the high terrain.

A sure sign of the time of year is when the Trail Crew starts their mowing operations... big lawns but historically the bulk of the vertical growth is done by now, wild flowers have bloomed, grass is high and it's time to start prepping the trails for winter. Mowing makes it possible for some to ski this stuff with 6" of October snow. Absolute bluebird today. Not a Cu in the sky.

The only thing is it’s thinking outside the box in one direction. You’d never see a warm look on the models in summer and think outside the box that it could verify cooler. Always warmer in summer, then in winter it’s always cooler outside the box thinking. It does generate discussion which is what the forums are about.

I know you know your stuff. We kid but I know it was just a quick glance and your dew reflex saw MW trough. You know a lot more than your posts lead on.

lol that was painful analysis to read. That anticyclonic surface flow should really bring in the dews there.

Basic Intro to MET 101... high pressure system, aka anticyclone.

That makes me think it’s definitely site changes that play into the other sites... MPV is probably one of the more pristine sites up here with that POR and no site changes. It’s a small air strip so it’s not like buildings are going up and paving going on. Heck the same guy has probably been mowing the grass for decades lol. It’s just a great spot to monitor climate.

It’ll be perfect for the large Champlain Valley Fair this weekend and next week. Fun time when it’s Chamber weather... horrible when it’s dews of 70F. Great people watching weather...they come out from everywhere for that fair. It’s like the suburbs meets West Virginia Appalachia all rolled into one.

It's going to be fall-like. Highs in the upper 60s up here with dews like 40-45F at the mtn valley sites on Sat/Sun afternoons per the GFS. GFS looks to have ORH failing to hit 75F for 4 straight days in August, then barely hits 75F on the 5th day (next Wednesday). All with sunshine too...none of this rain cooled crap. Just a classic early fall air mass.

Yeah I definitely think its harder for the radiators to get low these days compared to the past. Locally I think MVL was put in around 1987 (so we've just got our first 30-year normals a couple years ago), so it's still sorting out its records. Montpelier would be an interesting one to look at as they've had no site changes or even development around that grassy air field since the ASOS went in during the 50s. BTV is a lost cause up here. I will say, whenever Dendrite mentions the CON records, they used to get real cold it seems. Some of their records are surprising for how low they could get in the past on rad nights.

Ha, yeah I figured there had to be some evapotranspiration going on nearby to keep temps from getting to 80F. Even if under a thick canopy that still seems decently impressive as 80F feels like such an easy barrier to hit in mid-summer.

76/48 at last observation. Dews dropping into the 40s now.

Interesting it’s like that in SNE but not NNE. We've done 11 of 19 days this month with below the 30-year normal minimums at MVL. But warm mins seem to be almost more prevalent in the winter. No one bottoms out like they used to at least on the regular.

BTV AFD telling us how it is today: && Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 700 am EDT Tuesday...no significant changes made to crnt forecast. Did reduce areal coverage of fog based on satl/obs. Also, knocked several degrees off crnt hrly temps, as slk down to 44f and btv is 60f, great sleeping weather overnight. Otherwise with plenty of sun, temps will warm quickly this morning. North country chamber of Commerce weather today with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures, along with lower humidity levels.

54F for a min this morning, great sleeping weather. SLK with 43F lol.

Hike followed by a dip in the river, as often as possible. Dog cools off by rolling around in any mud, then gets a rinse in the river. A muddy dog is a happy dog. The cold water flowing off Mansfield is a perfect way to cool down on these more humid 80 degree days. Been swimming in the backyard pool daily... there's a surprisingly good sized area 5-6 feet deep, in the river right behind our place. Summer as it should be.

Auto-correct never stops... apparently even when you're tanked and nodding off, ha.

Charts! Model data showing some very comfortable weather this weekend and early next week. ORH dews even getting down into the 40s next weekend. But before that it has dews of 70-75F for Wed/Thur this week. Something for everyone... very humid followed by very Chamber.