powderfreak

Man, Greta has you chained in a shed .

Yeah 72 hours of teens would do it. That extra 500 verts makes a lot of difference… so often snowmaking gets to 2,500-2,000ft this time of year then stops. I want to see 850mb temps under -10C for like three days. 1500ft is also mid-slope climate and like Kevin’s yard… the surface inversion is below that usually. So we get nighttime profiles where it’s like 24F in town, 34F at 1500ft, and 24F up top. It’s a challenge to get all 2,100 verts sufficiently buried this time of year without some legit cold. It’s always fine on the top 1000-1500 feet.

Yeah I think we are behind a bit. There are some cold temps at times in the models but it’s going to be a struggle to get down to the base area. Even today was chilly but not great, production was slow going, a lot more air than water. I’m not convinced we hit the 22nd. I think it could be more like Thanksgiving.

Forest fire prevention work in progress here.

Some place in New Mexico… Monte Aplanado? Record snowfall. Long wave troughing out west and eastern ridging feels like a persistent pattern for numerous cold seasons lately. We need a win here on the east coast this year.

Some of these photos coming out of CO (especially south of Denver towards Colorado Spring) are pretty impressive for the lower elevations in early November. These are inhabited areas, many with at least some leaves left on the trees… not necessarily up in the mtns. Some places are in the 3-4” SWE range with a bit more to go. They’ve got another night to go with that cut-off low.

Hail/graupel here too. Pounding chunky frozen something.

We just need normal temps. It’s been like pulling teeth but normal will get it done, ha.

Can always increase amounts later.

I love the super local variations we see around here due to the terrain and mixing. You can tell where the air is moving swiftly, tapping into that higher level flow vs settling out calmly based on the temp.

MVL has been bouncing between 36F and 45F the past couple hours. Calm vs mixing. We could get to the normal 28F low (average min at both MVL and MPV), especially if it goes calm. Yesterday’s daily departures were incredible. A true +25 at Montpelier and +26 at Morrisville-Stowe. These sharp cold fronts get us back to normal.

Most of the interstates are closed. The photos look like not a place you want to be stuck… just miles of white nothingness. WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph, creating near blizzard conditions and snow drifts in excess of 8 feet.

Crushed.

The 84F in “Hartford Area” was BDL. HFD only hit 80F. If you go here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box And click on “Hartford Area” it gives you the BDL data.

These November moths flying around, trying to get inside… Two long stretches above 60 degrees up here in northern VT. Granted it’s only 750ft, but still statistically incredible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front is gradually progressing southward across the region tonight. While there is a noticeable wind shift behind it, there is not a sharp temperature gradient so temperatures are only falling slowly behind it. There were previously a few showers along this front but these have dissipated, so now it is passing through dry. Model guidance is suggesting a few showers could redevelop along it later tonight but any rain would be light and brief. It is not even cold enough for the highest peaks to see any chance of snow showers.

Yeah… claiming you are affected by drought because your lawn (that’s not actually used for anything) isn’t neon green… yawn. Let us know when you go to turn your faucet on and nothing happens. That’s when you have an actual problem. Brush fire burning down a barn? That qualifies too.

The opposite side of today’s departures here would be like a low of -5F and a high of like 25F.

Today is a mind f*ck…. walking the dog now by headlamp because it’s dark at 5pm, in shorts and T-shirt like it’s summer, with a tropical southerly breeze… it’s quite the vibe. This must be what Christmas in Florida feels like.

Almost turned on the A/C in November, lol.

70F this morning off a low of 65F. Normal high is 48F, low 29F.

It’s like hurry up and wait, haha. Stressful to get everything prepped and ready to go… only to then sit and watch the weather for 2-3 weeks.

Very thankful my salary isn’t based on eastern winter weather lol. The good news is that November overall is such a small minor number of a ski season’s financial outlook that it doesn’t move the needle. The Holiday Week and Presidents Week can be like 50% of an entire season’s business. Those are the big ones and Grinch loves to crash it.

70F here.

That’s not psycho babble bargaining in my thought process. Statistically, the long term pattern looks highly unfavorable. Everything is currently stacked against a solid cold precip event in New England. But if I’m a forecaster, I’m leaving open the chance of sneaking in an impactful winter weather event in this NNE climate despite the highly unfavorable background weeks 3-6. Its an afterthought, but sometimes one sneaks in during the low solar time of year. The most likely scenario is the mean outlook though.

There were some sleet pellets at the onset here with temps in the upper 30s. It was cold at summit level, then warm above that.