powderfreak

It is dumping in high-def live TV there.

That’s a legit cam shot, looks like a plows gone through there on RT 100 in Ludlow. Okemo cam only shows 1” though. Those variations are certainly possible though given microscale effects.

Can see the cold and dynamic cooling working on the SW side of the system. 32F from BGM to AVP.

Yeah you’re gonna need 0.10-0.20” in the bucket each hour to get that low level warmth eradicated. It needs to vomit snow to cool it below 1000-1500ft later tonight.

Positive snow depth increase is the map to use with the mild low level airmass.

Another night, another mild one at elevation. The mid-slope climate is well mixed and in a mild month, you can’t hide from it like the valleys can. 28F in the valley and 39F in the base area. It’s cold where people live, but warm on the mountain. The inversions are things that skew public perception on snowmaking.

Its got a devastating ice storm vibe.

How were winters following quakes AND fires?

Stowe’s problem is needing to open top to bottom on 2,100ft vertical… From about the blue line and up is decent, but the bottom 500 vertical feet is the problem. So could ski 1500 verts but can’t open due to that last 500. So we are left searching for 1500ft snowmaking temps. I like to see -5C to -7C at 925mb for decent base area temps (26F or lower).

Suppression depression already?

It’s wild to think about as a kid you’d go into a restaurant and asked “Smoking or non-smoking”… that wasn’t all that long ago.

Both the GFS and EURO show more precipitation through Sunday (once its all said and done, several rounds for all) than many have seen in months. Is any event going to make up the deficit, no? Not even close. But it will be enough rain to end the fire threat and help some wells. The bar is low, even a half inch over a few days would be wetting. The Atlantic Ocean is still there and a good, slow moving system will be able to tap it. Haven't seen this chance of widespread rain in months. Low level jet off the Atlantic.

From that fire near Great Barrington, Mass…

That looks like it’s past “almost breaking loose” and more into the “oh f*ck” category lol.

Great point. I think weather models take on a superstar status when they hit (or appear to hit) on a tracked event. It is still fun to see which one is closest when it matters… but you’re right, it doesn’t mean anything statistically for future results.

Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer. Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic.

You’re getting some rain with this next one. Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in. Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro. NAM is decent soak too.

Probably true.

Ah ha, there it is. Thanks! I thought it was odd there was nothing.

Not throwing shade at all, as I know how it goes sometimes… but I have been surprised that Sugarbush hasn’t updated any dialog about what’s going on there since mid-October.

Just loop 925mb temps then look at that snow map and it’s like .

Glad you enjoy them. I don’t do any of the social media but they give me the keys to that one text box and the snow phone to post weather and operations updates. It takes like 15 minutes out of my day but I think people appreciate it (and good to know they do). Took the weekend off though, never got a window for snowmaking, even at night.

Then they’ll wonder why it never snowed again that whole winter lol.

The beauty of following a weather forum is that it’s a hobby that’s sort of an escape from other aspects of life. We can talk science and facts, but opinions are like assholes… everyone has one. We don’t need to see all of them, on either side. 30F here at 750ft and 41F at 1,600ft. No snowmaking again above the inversion.