powderfreak

A large area of light snow across the north... with a narrow zone of heavy snow near the gradient. That feels like the right outcome. It's crazy that gradient remains in question and will have such a big effect on sensible impacts.

Just rots over 495.

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored. What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas. Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot. How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years? Could be another one.

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum. That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance. Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

HRRR extended has trended that way too like the NAM.

I would think so as well. The base is very solid for it's depth.

Maybe more boundary layer temp dependent?

About an inch here. Honestly seems like more than at 1500ft… half inch there.

Good burst of snow this morning.

Pretty good consensus on somewhere in Middlesex or Worcester County, north of the mix line, is where the best chances are at a jackpot.

True, good point.

Condescend this lol. It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion. I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

We benefited from it for sure. Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north… it seems like it’s making small movements. What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

All a model needs to do is nail a few winter events from 4 days out and it’s enshrined. I also think the other models were worse or seemed worse, and they’ve caught up. Running the Euro 4 times a day hasn’t helped. We see twice as many solutions as we used to back then with the model. The flip side is I can think of numerous events it was way too generous with QPF in snowfalls on the western and northern side. What was that event where it was gung ho on 20-36” for NYC and even into NNE for days… only to get completely shafted… 2011? Or Feb 2013?

There are a lot of candidates for posts of the year.

Not to mention we’d remember the 6 days out of 365 days in a calendar year when the Euro showed more snow than other models and it was right. But no one cared when its QPF forecast missed in early June. A lot of cherry picking in memories rooted around snowfall events.

We could work with that.

Stowe didn’t open till 12/3 last year, so absolutely. Pretty busy this weekend! And yeah, I undersold this one too lol. Models weren’t really exciting south of Jay but I was surprised it got as far south as Mansfield. Crazy sharp drop off south of here though.

Pretty big change from 00z. We watch.

Good stuff today. Patrol opened the Front back up. Photo from a friend.

9" measured on elevated surfaces within 24 hours is a solid snowfall (1-1.5" before the flip). Closing in on a half inch per hour average over an entire calendar day. That's a good shot of snow for the northern Greens as the trough moves through.

That makes total sense too... probably a tenth of an inch of liquid or so ahead of Mansfield. With these good ratios, 2-3" storm total increase makes sense. Say a 9" vs 12" event. This was 5pm at 1,500ft.

Agreed. The default is certainly more progressive... it has to work to amplify, like all systems do. It's why we know the Messenger ticks are a thing. It's probably a more SNE/CNE event rather than NNE.

Still cranking away. Storm total is what's on the stack plus 1-1.5" that was there between 5-6am before the board flipped. The base area probably is only an inch behind or so.

Blizzard conditions at times this evening.