nj2va

Pulling for you to see a good event. Such a complicated setup but hopefully the goalposts narrow today.

I was just coming here to post the same. There’s plenty of -15 to -19 showing up across Deep Creek this morning which is really impressive. Oddly enough, mine got down to 2.7 earlier overnight but has been rising ever since as high as 7 - which is consistently the same for the other McHenry stations - I’m wondering if there’s some kind of mini inversion since the McHenry stations are at 2800+ in elevation vs near the lake which is 100-200 feet lower. A station in McHenry on Wisp Mountain is at +9 while a station right across the lake 175 feet lower is at -9. Pretty crazy temp gradient!

Not surprising this close in.

It’s deceptive. The center is the dot below the L. So it’s due south of OBX and based on the height lines heading NE or NNE depending on the next few frames.

GFS on its own right now for 00z. Red flag for any model.

Good luck to the forecasters along the coast and especially north of us.

Yep the separation/less phasing clearly evident. Certainly doesn’t look like the NAM at h5

More separation in the streams at H24

Take us home with the GFS.

Who had convective feedback on their 0z bingo board?

ALEET ALEET The ICON is a trash model and shouldn’t be looked at.

I thought we were analyzing the DGEX this whole time!

Yeah, undermodeled as is the orographic lift, I’ve noticed. I don’t think this is an ideal upslope scenario though with the position of that LP being that offshore and heading ENE. There’s a good deal of energy on the backside of the trough swinging through so that’s the wildcard. Will definitely get enhancement from upslope but don’t think it’ll be huge. I could be wrong though.

Oh, just your run of the mill 18” snowstorm at OBX. Oh, NAM.

That’s a pretty darn good run IMO. 2-5” on the table for DC. I’d like to see NAM increase QPF totals in Deep Creek, selfishly

I love the consistency!

Taking it back to 2010 days with the IWM lol

Google said this: Operation Brasstacks - Wikipedia

But the Euro has the NAM on its side...what could go wrong?

All this time I actually thought it was brass tax. Learn something new every day...

Heading out there this weekend...unfortunately won't be quite the same as MLK weekend but should some decent snow, cold, and good skiing conditions!

I didn't even see whatever happened but just move on. Life's too short.

Where are you hearing that? Didn't CAPE post a tweet a few pages back saying the opposite based on RAOB data?

Yeah, of course a foot+ would be better but for me, I'm being realistic and not caring what north/south/east/west is getting.

shrug...I liked the GFS. Lines up with a pretty 2-4" with cold afterwards. It'd put MBY over climo for the winter.