nj2va

Only a 40 degree temp difference between here and Deep Creek.

75 glorious degrees!

I noticed this morning that the buds on my hydrangeas have started to get bigger/red in color over the last week. The 60s have definitely helped with the progression.

LWX posted watches for Garrett/Allegany in MD and Mineral County in WV. Up to 0.3” ice and 1” of snow/sleet. Good write-up too by LWX explaining the set-up and possibilities: Complex (but somewhat typical for this area) storm system will affect the area Thursday into Friday. A lead shortwave will be responsible for an initial round of precipitation Thursday, then a stronger shortwave will force an area of low pressure to develop along the stalled front to our south, before tracking to our west and north Thursday night and possibly redeveloping offshore Friday. Meanwhile, a strong Arctic high will be located over Canada feeding cold/dry air southward which will become dammed east of the Appalachians. The atmosphere may be cold enough (or at least wet bulb low enough) for precipitation to start as some snow or sleet for parts of the area. However, the air aloft will warm with time, eventually leading to a rain or freezing rain scenario. Surface temperatures are always tricky during CAD, but probabilities support the greatest chance of any icing generally north and west of I-95...but particularly within a couple counties of the PA border where the greatest QPF is expected Thursday night to Friday morning. In some of these areas, especially in the Cumberland MD area, the wedge may not break until the trailing cold front arrives later Friday morning. Some of the factors that will have an effect on this system: 1. There will be an interesting play between air temperatures and precipitation with the initial round Thursday due to wet bulb processes, which may ultimately determine the strength/breadth of the CAD. 2. There will be very dry air at the surface, so precipitation could have a hard time progressing northward Thursday. 3. While not a common solution in models, there is some potential for a more prolonged period of sleet near the PA border which could reduce freezing rain accumulations. 4. For much of the area, temperatures will be marginal for the event, and the preceding days have been very warm. Any areas where freezing rain is light or brief may not have as much of an impact as it would otherwise. 5. Uncertainties about if and how much temperatures drop Thursday evening and rise thereafter, as well as QPF during the second wave, which will largely be focused north of the area. In the end, issued a Winter Storm Watch due to the potential of more than a quarter inch of ice for Allegany, Garrett (especially eastern), and Mineral Counties. This is based on a combination of NBM probabilities, QPF forecasts, and CAD climatology. Interesting enough, if western Garrett stays warm and sees mostly rain, we may have to monitor localized minor hydro issues. It`s also possible places like Catoctin Mountain could near a quarter inch of ice, but confidence/areal coverage is expected to be much lower in these areas. We will evaluate the need for advisories/warnings later today.

Better close the blinds when walking around the house naked.

18z continuing that pretty crazy upslope look for the mountains. Besides the MLK upslope, this may be the best setup of the season for upslope there.

Sunny and 66 degrees. It’s time to officially close the door on winter…give me this for the next month.

If we get a good storm, sure I’m all in. But (at least for Alexandria), I’m over the cold. I’m ready to start spring yard clean-up, grilling, and hanging out on the patio.

Awesome! What a great video

I had to google that! Looks like a neat duck

Good squall coming through now. 23/SN+. Nieces and nephews loving it.

Heat and winds - the Mid Atlantic’s two over performers. Already gusting into the 30s out here. My mom is worried about my youngest nieces and nephews getting blown away outside later.

Should be a fun, wintry day. @RIC_WX National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 639 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 MDZ001-191945- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.220219T1300Z-220219T2100Z/ Garrett- 639 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow showers and squalls expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. Winds will gust up to 50 mph, which may briefly create localized near blizzard conditions.

Seems reasonable since we hit 70 already on a powerful LP cutting west. The same storm a 4-5 weeks from now would give us 80 probably.

@winterwxluvr - take that!

0.8” of rain on the day at Deep Creek. Temp is 54 degrees - looks like a few hours away from the cold coming through.

Ha, I can tell you in my case, it was just laziness. I ignored the flower beds, mulch, etc - oops. But I’ll tell my partner it just blew over from the neighbors’ yard since you told me that.

That’s in Venezuelan Bolivars right?

Yep, I mentioned that to RIC_WX a few days ago when I saw that NS vort/clipper moving through the NE. It screamed for upslope setup for the mountains.

Noticing some larger tree buds in the yard over the last two days, too.

Oh? You rang?

I don't even care if what you're saying is actually right, but damn it sounds smart!

Feels like a spring morning out there with temps in the los 50s and lots of birds chirping.

Welcome to the party