nj2va

Wave 1 on the Euro is Deep Creek's biggest storm of the winter, believe it or not. 6-8" which is telling for how bad this winter has been across this area.

Pretty thorough layout by LWX: Unsettled conditions return on Friday to conclude the work week. The mentioned closed low will track across southern Michigan on Friday morning before settling overhead late Friday. Over the past couple of days, this system has certainly exhibited a faster trend. Warm advection precipitation enters the picture before daybreak across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. This shield of precipitation presses eastward through the day making for a chilly and raw day. With a cold air damming signature evident, have favored the colder solutions which tend to verify better in these setups. Accordingly, have brought high temperatures down into the low/mid 40s, with mid 30s over the mountains. With cold air in place, some of the precipitation will be wintry in nature. There is a chance for a brief rain/snow mix at the onset in the vicinity of the metros, but no accumulation is expected. A dusting up to 0.1-0.2" are possible closer to the Mason-Dixon Line and points westward. As usual, elevation will be the key as temperatures are to remain colder. Models show some wavering of the 925-850 mb freezing line which would make for a mix of freezing rain along the Alleghenies. Through Friday evening, a trace up to 0.05" of ice accretions are in the forecast for such locations. Elsewhere, a cold rain is expected through the day with up to 0.25-0.50" north of DC and lighter amounts to the south. Light snow continues into the night along the Alleghenies as lift is augmented by upslope flow. As the cold front tracks through overnight, precipitation comes to an end from west to east. If temperatures cool off enough, areas north of the DC and Baltimore metros may see a light coating of snow. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 30s for most, while 20s are more commonplace west of I-81. As winds turn blustery, wind chills are forecast to drop into the single digits to teens along the Alleghenies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep area of low pressure is progged to be drifting offshore Saturday. Blustery conditions are possible in its wake depending on how strong it gets, and how close it remains to the coast; guidance remains somewhat at odds on how both of these factors play out. Regardless, colder than normal temperatures are expected to spiral into the region as the low departs and high pressure briefly noses in. High temperatures may not get out of the 40s for most (staying in the 30s for the higher terrain). Overnight lows in the 20s seem likely Saturday night (teens for the higher terrain). Another trough quickly approaches Sunday into Monday. Timing and strength differences are evident in the guidance, as is to be expected in progressive flow at longer time ranges. There is also uncertainty in the degree of phasing of shortwaves rotating around the base of the large scale trough. Some cold air will be present, so at least the higher elevations may stand another chance at some wintry precipitation, but details are very fuzzy this far out.

We just got back from dinner and I was outside pulling these fckers up when I got out of the car. Let me know if you like them…I’m ready to give up and do the same ha.

Let's just hope the backdoor fronts stay north of the M/D line

Ah, thanks for that recommendation! Will do that this week.

I’m tracking zonal, dry patterns or the return of the SER. Hard pass on highs in the mid 40s with drizzle in March.

I have been painstakingly trying to pull up all the hairy bittercress in our back/front yard before the seeds mature and they “pop” when you touch it. Such an annoying weed.

CMC basically looks like a frontal passage for next weekend’s storm.

Here’s a good summary for the I-81 (and west) corridor that I found: 81 and western MD storm threat summary

What a spectacular day. Full sun and 59, heading for the low 60s.

Yeah, ideally would be TN but can even take KY for parts of this area. But OH is too far north - thermals would be wrecked and it’d redevelop too far north for our latitude.

Margarita for happy hour. Cheers to spring!

Post 7pm sunsets start next weekend

Remember when the Euro didn’t make big changes run to run?

Let’s get rid of this block, pump a ridge, and go for warm/dry for March and April.

We take PBP too seriously here.

Early preview of our epic pattern.

This post should replace the last 4 pages.

If you like digital blue, 6z GFS was the run for you.

I think things will be fine but best to double check in the late morning. The low tonight at Mt Storm is 32 and the high tomorrow is 35. That doesn’t scream ice storm to me with the heavy precip but check conditions tomorrow before leaving.

I'm not trying to poo poo on the window as I agree the 50/50, decaying block, etc are all good things - but for the MA latitude,, that energy appears a bit north of where we want it.

Yeah we were going to head up tonight but I now need to stay local for a few meetings tomorrow. You may need those snow tires for the epic of all epic patterns in 10+ days.

I don't think they'll see 0.2-0.4" of ice accretion...this doesn't seem conducive to a big ice storm with the setup. No extreme cold leading in and temps will be in the low 30s with moderate to at times heavy precip.

Cutter cutter, chicken dinner

Our upcoming March 1993 redux will push peak bloom into April.