nj2va

The Bills finally look like the team they should have been all season.

It’s only a matter of time when one of those exit the coast, becomes a 50/50 low, locks in a H over Quebec - while the next is strengthening in the TN valley. And well, we know what’s next.

Steady light rain.

I forget what these maps have looked like. My goodness.

Here she comes:

HRRR has precip arriving between 1p and 2p. And brings in waves of very heavy rain later tonight.

That’s a really sweet look on the EPS. With the Pacific looking that like, we don’t need a perfect Atlantic. But saying that, roll that forward a few more days, and the Atlantic would be even better. You’ve got to like where we’re going in early January. And I still think the few days leading up to New Years will present an opportunity especially for areas west of 95.

Got some light fog this morning. It’s nice to see another healthy QPF system .

I have to think Osfan does it for attention, right?

I dunno dude, looks like we should just start planting our gardens for the year. Wall to wall spring is in store. Just punt it all.

Winter Storm Watch for the mountains. 6-12”, highest totals above 2500’ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 251 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-170400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 251 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations around 6 to as much as 12 inches possible. The highest accumulations will be along/west of the Allegheny Front for elevations above 2,500 feet. West to northwest wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph are possible as well. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow is most likely late Monday afternoon through Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute and the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of snow and blowing snow will cause visibility to be reduced to below one-half mile at times with near blizzard conditions possible.

I dunno. Ers weather guy said it definitely won’t snow this winter. And Mets are never wrong.

Intern needs to relearn how to paint inside the lines.

Yup, I don’t really care that it’s an OP at range. It shows the progression that completely makes sense based on Ens and pattern evolvement. I also love the 50/50 low on the OP.

I wanted to see the next 24 hours after the 6z ended. We were ready to ring in 2024 with a bang.

18z Euro QPF

Just got home from the office and made a margarita. Getting ready for my 75 degree Christmas apparently!

Wow, so basically this "can kicking its time to punt all of January" is turning out to be like 48 hours of "can kicking." I hope the debs can handle it.

Using an ensemble at 330 hours to look at 850mb temps? Not sure I would look that hard at this stage. I don't think ensembles would key in on things like that at this point.

That upper level feature helps to enhance upslope for the mountains at the very least. I'm not smart enough to say what it means for east of the mountains.

Nice to see Hs and Ls in the right place for that window on the 6z GFS OP.

You must be a hit at parties

Are people still punting through the end of January? I won’t sleep until I hear what osfan says

GFS with quite the rain maker starting Sunday. Basically occludes and stalls over the Mid Atlantic. 2-4”+ area wide. Gotta think with this active STJ, we’ll score with a significant snowstorm once we get some help from the pac and atl.

With the way this STJ is flexing, I find it hard to believe we don’t see at least one big coastal.