nj2va

I drove by, stopped and let the dog out to drop one.

Temp down to 46. It looks like it’ll be real fun back east tomorrow.

3” for deep creek? Meh

Driving out to Deep Creek now. On 270, easily the worst highway in the world. Why haven’t they added lanes north of Clarksburg? anways hope everyone scores snow tomorrow. Should be some fun weather at least.

Great write-up this morning by LWX: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere. Winds may gradually diminish later Saturday night while dry and very cold conditions persist. One other concern is for a strong to severe storm or even an isolated tornado near extreme southern MD early Saturday morning. The warm sector will be nearby with the low passing through, and there will be plenty of low and deep layer shear. However, confidence is low at this time since instability may not be rooted within the boundary layer.

I've been slammed at work today so haven't really looked at guidance until you referenced the CMC. I'd say <6" - 20% 6-10" - 50% >10" - 30%

I'll be that guy. Take with a grain of salt yadda yadda but I think your area will get a few inches (maybe more).

Thanks, sorry I meant 10m. We do wind well!

If you wouldn't mind also checking the 10m winds - I realize Euro always overdoes it, but curious what its showing. The WSW for the mountains mentions 40-55 gusts.

Are you going out this weekend? We're driving up tomorrow afternoon. Should be fun out there!

3k NAM would prevent this from being the least snowy season on record for Deep Creek.

LWX added heavy snow into the mountain zone forecasts. First call by them.

Getting those now is a great deal. We do that every year.

Could be right for your WV place

Mountains getting the "Enhanced" threat.

That's what I like to hear...

With the energy swinging through and winds out of the NW, I'd be surprised if it wasn't still snowing (even if lightly/mood flakes) throughout the night on Saturday. I've seen it plenty of times out there play out like that in spite of what the models are showing.

Snowing at Wisp on the cameras. It was freezing rain earlier. Bare spots are getting covered up.

42/rain. Yard getting a solid soaking.

Knock on wood…but they’ve been playing better of late.

You make 21 look good brother!

I’m fully onboard the spring train and sun/60s but I’d be ok with the foot+ the GFS spit out there (oops, snow maps!)

It’s slow season on the boards. But GFS looks fun verbatim.

Heading to Deep Creek this weekend…if its going to be cold, I’d rather be there than here and go skiing depending on conditions. LWX 'yellow'd' the western zones:

I just watched the 2nd half of that championship game. I was glad to see Delaware win a hard fought game. Sorry about Towson! Hopefully next year is the year for them.