nj2va

We know the dangers of tracking long range snow on OPs but at least the ensemble looks upstairs are conducive to frozen looks. Best for everyone to be prepared for the OPs to show every possible outcome for now.

That’s quite the stout 1044 HP on the 0z OP, too.

Have a great time! Hopefully France plays another World Cup game while you’re there…assume it’d be fun to experience!

Sky is on fire.

Just got to Deep Creek. 42 with 3.5” of snow depth.

Agree, he was about to score since the goalie was still way out of the net. Smart use of the yellow card there. Disappointing given how well we played in the first. I watch soccer once every four years but are the refs always that bad? The guy was so inconsistent - also the constant flops make soccer look silly.

Go USA!

The Euro just went towards the CMC (and previously the GFS) idea of deepening the trough and closing it off over west TX. Seems like anything is on the table this weekend but agree, don’t want to see a washout especially in the mountains. If we’re going to get a storm (and a marginal air mass), would prefer a wound up bomb so at least we get upslope on the backside.

GFS has the LP in Northern Texas on Saturday afternoon while Euro has it near Binghamton. Lol Interestingly enough, the CMC moved to the GFS solution that cuts off the trough over the central US.

Already down to 30. Christmas tree up, fire going. Feels like winter!

Good summary by LWX for the storm possibility later this week. Model guidance begins to diverge a bit by Friday, but there has been a bit more of a consensus in the 12z cycle, at least in the deterministic runs. The ICON still hangs onto the solution that cuts off a low over TX and tracks northward into the Mid-Atlantic. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all have a similar situation where a strong upper trough digs into the central CONUS and moves across the area Friday into Saturday before becoming negatively tilted and lifting up the east coast. At the surface, all three have strong lows nearby, with the GFS being the most bullish by far. There remains a wide variety of solutions within the ensemble guidance however, so that is something to take into account as we monitor the trends in the coming days. At the very least, this is something we need to keep a close eye on. For the time being, it appears this would be more of a heavy rain and/or severe weather threat depending on the track of any potential surface low. Should these solutions verify, we would looking at a decent shot of cold advection on Saturday, along with upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front and strong wind gusts in the wake of the system. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what pattern ultimately unfolds, with ensemble guidance currently advertising a wide range of possible solutions.

We put up the Christmas decorations outside and inside today - waiting for the fresh garland to arrive from Costco to finish up decorating outside. I actually liked the chilly weather today for it - felt more festive and it was nice not sweating while doing it.

Ha, thought the same thing when I just checked it. It had been in the FROPA crowd but decided to shift back to the CMC/Euro camp. I’m rooting for a deepening low so the mountains cash in on upslope.

One for the ages

I think we have entered the rebuilding years.

You picked a good one to chase

The soundings in that band are nuts. Omegas+++++

Can you post links to your nest cams again?

Just incredible. Do you need to get up on your roof to clear any of it? Or is the wind helping to alleviate any issues there?

Don’t offend us on the Mid Atlantic board - he’s up in NJ in the NYC thread.

Agreed, or just play it on Monday night.

Wow, that’s epic. Love the pictures and videos.

Amazing photos @BuffaloWeather - what an epic event for you. Keep the photos coming!

Omg, 66” at Orchard Park? That’s insane. And that’s essentially in 24 hours?

Nice! Deep Creek has been cashing in today. Neighbor down the hill from us texted me and said he’s at 4” and counting. We’ll be there on Tuesday for Thanksgiving - keeping my eye on next Friday/weekend for snow.